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The Saint Mary's Gaels are set to face the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Check out our college basketball odds series, which includes our Saint Mary's Gonzaga prediction, odds, and pick.
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The WCC Tournament final odds will lean to Gonzaga, since the Zags are the top team in the country. However, one should remember not only the fact that Saint Mary's beat Gonzaga in late February, but that the Gaels have upset Gonzaga in past WCC Tournament finals. Randy Bennett doesn't normally beat Mark Few, but he has gotten his shots in over the years. Every now and then, Saint Mary's is able to pull off a surprise. It doesn't happen most of the time, but it happens. That has to be kept in mind when formulating a Saint Mary's Gonzaga prediction.
Gonzaga and Saint Mary's both arrived at this WCC Tournament final in similar ways, as college basketball odds experts will tell you. Gonzaga led San Francisco in the WCC semifinals by 18 points with nearly four and a half minutes left before San Francisco pulled within eight points with just over one minute left and had a 3-point attempt with a chance to trim the deficit to five points. Gonzaga got careless and lazy, but only after it had established a significant late-game margin. That lazy, unfocused conclusion to the San Francisco game should give Gonzaga a sharper edge to its effort at the start of this game. GU knows it didn't finish the San Francisco game well at all.
Saint Mary's did much the same thing against Santa Clara, except for the fact that the Gaels almost paid the ultimate price. Saint Mary's led Santa Clara by 8 to 12 points for most of the game and still led by six in the final two minutes, but the Gaels then allowed a 3-pointer and committed a turnover. Santa Clara then scored to pull within just one point in the final 40 seconds. Saint Mary's had a shot blocked. Santa Clara had a chance to win the game in the final 10 seconds. SMC's Logan Johnson blocked a shot attempt by Santa Clara star Jalen Williams in the last six seconds. The Gaels made two free throws and hung on to win, 75-72. SMC also knows it didn't finish its WCC semifinal the way it expects to. Both teams have reason to be dissatisfied and angry entering this game.
Gonzaga, of course, will have extra anger after being decisively beaten by Saint Mary's in late February. You know the Zags are itching to get on the court for this rematch, the third time the teams have met this season. The series is tied, 1-1.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Saint Mary's-Gonzaga odds:
WCC Tournament Final Odds: Saint Mary's-Gonzaga Odds
Saint Mary's: +12.5 (-110)
Gonzaga: -12.5 (-110)
Over: 140 (-110)
Under: 140 (-110)
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Why Saint Mary's Could Cover the Spread
The Gaels are physical and have the defensive length to bother Gonzaga. Chet Holmgren is supremely skilled, but he is also a reed-thin player who can get bullied by thicker, more physical defenders who know how to use their feet and get to the right spots on the floor. Santa Clara has a defensive formula which works against the Zags.
Why Gonzaga Could Cover the Spread
The Zags are going to roar onto the court full of vigor and intensity. They will want to avenge the loss to the Gaels in late February, and that will power them to a massive win of nearly 20 points.
Final Saint Mary's-Gonzaga Prediction & Pick
The temptation to pick a Gonzaga blowout is real, but both of the semifinals on Monday were lopsided for 30 minutes and then got very tight at the end. Saint Mary's won't win, but it will stay in the neighborhood and hang around, losing by 10 points.
Final Pick: Saint Mary's +12.5
