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Western Kentucky enters the season as the favorite to win Conference USA. It is now time to continue our college football odds series with a Western Kentucky football win total prediction and pick.
Austin Reed is back for head coach Tyson Helton and the Hilltoppers. After going 9-5 last year, and finishing third in the conference, Western Kentucky will be looking to win the conference this year. Gone are UTSA and North Texas who finished in front of the Hilltoppers. Back is a great offense that will take the rest of the conference by storm. Mark Goode is still around and could be a top lineman in Conference USA if he can stay healthy. The offense also brings in Blue Smith from Cincinnati, and who will thrive in this offense.
On defense, Jaques Evans is back, and he will be a problem for C-USA quarterbacks. He is fast and can get around the edge. The Junior edge rusher will be a player to watch for the Hilltoppers this year, and it can be expected for him to approach double-digit sacks this year. The defense also has Upton Stout. While Stout is not going to shut down every top receiver they face, with help from Talique Allen, they can make some big plays and slow down some passing offense.
Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Western Kentucky Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 8.5 wins: +114
Under 8.5 wins: -140
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Why Western Kentucky Can Win 8.5 Games
Western Kentucky will have a quality offense and will be contending for the conference title. They open the season with USF at home. While the Bulls will be a better squad than they were in years past they will struggle this year. Western Kentucky has more talent, and this is a home game. They will snag the win in week one before getting another one in week two against Houston Christian. This was a bad FCS team that Western Kentucky can handle with ease. The win streak ends there, as Western Kentucky travels to Ohio State. The Buckeyes are one of the favorites to win the CFP this year and be crowned national champions. Western Kentucky would love to just keep the game close, but will not be winning.
The next week of the season will be an exciting match-up. Troy is one of the best defensive units in the Sun Belt, and potentially the nation. Still, Western Kentucky has the type of offense that can give Troy trouble. They can spread you out with ease, and pick apart small holes in the zone or man-to-man plays. This is strength versus strength, and to get to nine wins, the Hilltoppers will need to finish on top. Next are two conference hopefuls. First is Middle Tennessee, who has an offense with no punch and a line that can't get to the QB. Austin Reed will be having a great day here.
Next on the docket is Louisiana Tech. The pass defense will need to step up here for both teams. The focus will be the LA Tech defense. Quarterbacks were able to pick them apart last year, and Western Kentucky will be no different. Western Kentucky grabs their fifth win of the season before taking out FCS newcomer Jacksonville State. Ultimately, the October 24th home game against Liberty could be the season's biggest game. First, there is a chance that Liberty is coming in undefeated while the Hilltoppers have one loss. Second, these two are the top contenders for the conference crowns. While Jamey Chadwell and the company will have a good defense this year, they will not have enough on offense to keep up.
Next is the bye week before what will arguably be their toughest game left with UTEP. UTEP is going to sneak up and get someone, this year in their last three games. With the final three games being WKU, Liberty, and Middle Tennessee for UTEP, and potentially a bowl on the line, they will find a way to get one win in there. Due to the differences in the lines of scrimmage, it is very possible Western Kentucky losses to UTEP, but they will bounce back against New Mexico State. The Aggies will not have enough offense or defense to compete at the very top level of the conference. While Jerry Kill has the team improving, and Diego Pavia is an exciting quarterback, there is just not enough talent there.
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The same will be true with Sam Houston. Sam Houston is going to have a top-quality defense this year, but it will not be enough to get the win over the Hilltoppers. They will then finish the season on a nice win streak, beating FIU. The top end for Western Kentucky is an 11-1 year this year, and they will be aiming for that.
Why Western Kentucky Can Not Win 8.5 Games
For Western Kentucky to miss the win total, it is a four-loss effort. First, there is the possibility of losing to USF. Gerry Bohannon can push the ball downfield. Last year, Western Kentucky has major issues with penalties, while USF was in the top half of the NCAA on opponent penalty calls. Meaning, USF gets calls, while Western Kentucky gets flagged. It would be a major upset, but it is possible.
Then, there will be a loss to Ohio State, and then Troy is possible. Troy is amazing against the run, and Western Kentucky does not have a top-quality running game. Troy has enough on offense to score enough points to win a game. If Western Kentucky commits a few turnovers, this game is going to Troy. In conference play, four games could go the wrong way.
First is Middle Tennessee, which will be one of the top contenders to jump in and take the conference. They have the balanced offense to do just that. If they can find a way to get pressure on the quarterback in this game, they have enough skill positions to get the win. The same is true about Liberty. Ultimately Liberty will go as far as the quarterback development takes them. The defense will be solid and will force turnovers. If they have the QB position figured out, which Jamey Chadwell has always done well with, Liberty will be winning this game.
Finally, there are two potential upsets. First is Louisiana Tech. This will all come down to the development of the defensive backs and the offense under Sonny Cumbie. While the Bulldogs showed improvement last year, they let up too many big plays. Meanwhile, quarterback play was fairly average, but with a slew of transfers on offense, they could make a major jump this year and upset some teams. The other option is UTEP. UTEP is a growing program that will get upset this year. While Western Kentucky may be the best team in the conference, it is also a perfect option.
Final Western Kentucky Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
Western Kentucky will start 2-0 and then will surprise some people against Ohio State. They will show well against the Buckeyes and scare some people early. They lose to Troy and are upset once in conference play. That brings the Hilltoppers to 9-3 and over.
Final Western Kentucky Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 8.5 (+114)
