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It is a Conference USA against Sun Belt match-up as Western Kentucky faces Troy. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Western Kentucky-Troy prediction, pick, and how-to watch.
Western Kentucky was one of the favorites to win Conference USA when the season opened. They started the season with two strong offensive performances. First, they beat USF 41-24. They followed that up by scoring 52 points against Houston Christian and winning 52-22. Then, they faced Ohio State. Ohio State was clicking on all cylinders during the game. It was a close game early, with Western Kentucky down just 14-10 eight minutes into the second quarter. Then, Marvin Harrison scored on a one-play 75-yard drive. The next drive was also one play, this time with Chip Trayanum running for 40 yards. Ohio State would get to a 42-10 lead at the half and win 63-10.
Troy is currently second in odds to win the Sun Belt, but they come in after a conference loss. Troy is 1-2 on the season, starting with a win over Stephen F. Austin. It was a solid performance in the game, winning 48-30. Then, they faced Kansas State and fell 42-13. Last week, they went up against James Madison, who is not eligible for the conference title game. It was a tight game throughout. JMU took a 6-0 lead, but in the second quarter, Troy scored to take a one-point lead. At the half, it was 13-7 James Madison, and Troy would be down 16-7 going into the fourth. They would score on the opening drive of the fourth quarter to be down two, but were not able to score against and fell 16-14.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Western Kentucky-Troy Odds
Western Kentucky: +3.5 (-110)
Troy: -3.5 (-110)
Over: 57.5 (-114)
Under: 57.5 (-106)
How to Watch Western Kentucky vs. Troy
TV: ESPNU
Stream: ESPN App
Time: 12:00 PM ET/ 9:00 AM PT
*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Western Kentucky Will Cover The Spread
Article Continues Below
For Western Kentucky to cover it will start with Austin Reed. Reed has not been amazing this year but has been solid. On the year he is 77-120 for 794 yards and seven touchdowns. Last time out it was a struggle though. While Reed did have a touchdown pass, he also had an interception and another turnover-worthy pass. He struggled with pressure all day. On 39 dropbacks, he was pressured 15 times. He had only been pressured 14 times in the prior two games overall. Still, he was sacked just once, and the receivers did a solid job. They had five drops in the first two games, but none against Ohio State.
The receiving core was led by Malachi Corley last time out. He brought in eight of 13 targets for 88 yards and a score against Ohio State. He was great after the catch as well. Corley had 69 yards after the catch, which was nearly half of the team total. On the year, he now has 143 yards and a score in two games. Corley has been great out of the slot and will look to continue that in this game.
The biggest issue last game was the defense. Western Kentucky had just five quarterback pressures in the game and one sack. They also missed eight tackles and gave up four touchdowns in the air. Still, that was against a great Ohio State. In week one against USF, they had 32 pressures, six sacks, two interceptions, and four pass breakups, so the defense should expect more of that against Troy.
Why Troy Will Cover The Spread
For Troy, it is going to start with solid defense. Last week against James Madison, they were solid. Troy got 18 quarterbacks pressured in the game but converted just one into a sack. That was by Richard Jibunor who had three pressures, and also four stops for offensive failure. Even more, Troy has to be solid in the passing game. Last week they allowed a nearly 60 percent completion rate with a touchdown in the air. They did have one pass break though. They also only missed one tackle in the passing games and allowed just 66 yards after the catch.
The offense is led by Gunnar Watson at quarterback. Last time out against James Madison he was solid. He completed 25 of 47 passes for 329 yards and two touchdowns. Watson had six big times throws according to PFF and pushed the ball downfield well with an average depth of target sitting over 12 yards downfield. Still, there is the concern of turnovers. He had an interception and two fumbles in the game. Watson also threw six turnover-worthy passes. On the year, he has thrown three interceptions, 11 turnover-worthy passes, and fumbled six times.
Troy also needs to get back to running the ball well. Kimani Vidal opened the season with a 257-yard performance. On the year he had 371 yards on 52 attempts, but he has not scored and fumbled once. Last week, he struggled heavily against James Madison. Vidal ran 11 times for just 31 yards. He caused just one missed tackle, and he did not get help from his line. His average depth of first contact was under a yard beyond the line of scrimmage. Still, Vidal has shown he can work through contact. In the first game he had 171 yards after first contact, but just 60 yards since then. If he can get back to working through contact, Troy can control the game and get the win.
Final Western Kentucky-Troy Prediction & Pick
Troy comes into this game ranked 94th in the nation in total defense. This is normally a stout defensive unit, but they have not shown it this year. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky is 49th in total offense this year, and Austin Reed is a solid quarterback. While the Western Kentucky defense is ranked poorly, a lot of that is due to facing Ohio State last week. There are things to learn from that game for Troy, but still, the defensive units are fairly close right now in level. The biggest factor in the game will be turnovers. Troy has turned over the ball seven times, which ranks 116th in the nation. Further, Western Kentucky has forced eight turnovers, good for sixth in the nation. That will be the difference in this game. Take Western Kentucky and the points.
Final Western Kentucky-Troy Prediction & Pick: Western Kentucky +3.5 (-110)
