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The 2022 World Cup is now down to the final eight teams. On Friday, December 10, at 2:00 pm ET, England, the team that won Group B and beat Senegal with relative ease, 3-0, will take on the defending champs from France, the winners of Group D, who also cruised into the quarterfinals with a 3-1 victory over Poland. Now, it’s time to continue our World Cup odds series with an England-France prediction and pick!
Outside of the Three Lions’ 0-0 draw with the USMNT, England has been quietly dominant this tournament, winning their other three matches 12-2. That said, their path has been relatively easy to this point, with Iran, Wales, and Senegal not being anywhere near as good as their opponent on Saturday. France has also faced little resistance in this tournament. Their “B” squad lost to Tunisia 1-0 in the last game of the Group Stage, but other than that, Kylian Mbappe and company have put teams away to the tune of 9-3 on aggregate.
In this World Cup odds piece, we will look at the odds of the match, discuss why England could win, how France could win, and then make our picks for this quarterfinals showdown.
Here are the England vs. France World Cup odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
World Cup Odds: England-France Odds
England: +110
France: -134
Over 2.5 Goals: +114
Under 2.5 Goals: -138
Why England Will Beat France
This core England group has been together through the last two major international tournaments and finished fourth in the 2018 World Cup and second in the 2020 Euros. They know how to play in big games and aren’t afraid of the moment.
In this match vs. the defending champs, England will know exactly what it has to do to get the job done. They will have to adopt a more defensive posture, which means don’t be surprised to see manager Gareth Southgate go back to the 3-5-2 he favored in the last World Cup.
This formation allows England to morph into a five-at-the-back when France is attacking and has better numbers to match up with France’s four forwards, Kylian Mbappe, Olivier Giroud, Antoine Griezmann, and Ousmane Dembele.
An England win is a tough, hard-fought, slower game than a French win. If the Three Lions can slow down the dangerous French attack, goalkeeper Jordan Pickford can come up with some big saves, and then get some action up front with their veterans like Harry Kane, Raheem Sterling, Marcus Rashford, Bukayo Saka, and Phil Foden (and yes, Saka, (21), Foden (22) and Rashford (25) are vets now in their second, second, and third major tournaments, respectively) vs. the young, inexperienced France backline, England can win a low-scoring game.
Why France Will Beat England
There are several scenarios where France wins this match, and almost all of them involve France being the first team in this tournament to test a shaky England backline.
Harry Maguire hasn’t made his big mistake yet, despite being out of form throughout the Premier League season, Kyle Walker is coming off an injury, and Luke Shaw and Kieran Tripper are average defenders at best. And if Southgate does go with three center-backs, it will either be Conner Coady, who hasn’t played yet in the 2022 World Cup, or Eric Dier, who’s only played 36 minutes.
Kylian Mbappe leads the Golden Boot race in Qatar with five goals thus far, and his teammate, Olivier Giroud, is right behind him with three. And one of last World Cup’s heroes, Antoine Griezmann hasn’t even gotten warmed up yet. If you have to pick who is going to win the matchup between England's back four or five and France’s front four, you take France every time.
And even if the Three Lions’ defense does play well, there is always the chance that Mbappe just bosses the game and shows why he is the best player in the world at the moment. Even at just 23 years old, Mbappe is already entering his name into the GOAT conversation, and this World Cup could be another moment for him.
If France wins this match, they probably score early and often and blow England out.
Final England-France Prediction & Pick
This should be the closest game of the quarterfinals, and the odds reflect that. These two teams are historical rivals, although this is the first time they’ve faced off in a World Cup knockout game.
The most likely outcomes of this match are a close England win or a big France victory. The one oddity may be that while shootouts usually favor the underdog, England is so star-crossed in penalty kicks in international tournaments, they will likely be the ones feeling more pressure.
That said, no team has repeated as World Cup champs since Brazil in 1962, so the chances of France winning the whole thing are slim. That’s why I like England in a 1-0 match where their experience and near-misses triumph over France and their thin midfield and inexperienced backline.
Final England-France Prediction & Pick: England (+110); Under 2.5 goals (-138)
