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In the 2022 World Cup’s Group C, match two kicks off on Tuesday, November 22, at 11:00 am ET, with the No. 13 team FIFA World Rankings, Mexico, facing the 26th-ranked team, Poland. It's time to continue our World Cup odds series with a Mexico-Poland prediction and pick!
The big story in the group is Lionel Messi and Argentina, but the second-place spot behind La Albiceleste is wide open. In fact, the winner of this Mexico vs. Poland match could determine which team moves on to the knockout stage and which team ultimately goes home.
In this World Cup odds piece, we will look at the odds of the match, discuss why Mexico could win, how Poland could win, and then make our picks for this Group C showdown.
Here are the Mexico-Poland World Cup odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
World Cup Odds: Mexico-Poland Odds
Mexico: +160
Poland: +200
Draw: +195
Over 2.5 Goals: +152
Under 2.5 Goals: -186
Why Mexico Will Beat Poland
Mexico under Tata Martino is an aggressive, pressing, and creative side that can create a lot of chances, either quickly off a turnover or in the buildup. The problem is, without some well-known names like Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez or Carlos Vela, the team can have trouble putting the ball in the back of the net.
Against Poland, Mexico will be without a world-class striker and playing a world-class striker in Robert Lewandowski, which will also present problems.
The way Mexico wins this game is by finding players who can step up and finish, and by stopping Lewandowski from doing the same. On the scoring side, Wolves striker Raul Jimenez has only played three Premier League games because of a hip injury. However, at the 2022 World Cup, it seems like he is finally healthy.
Also, speedy winger Hirving Lozano is in good form. Coming off the bench for Napoli, Lozano had three goals and two assists in his last seven Serie A matches.
On the defensive side, it will be a team effort to keep Barcelona striker Robert Lewandowski off the scoresheet, but Mexico has an individual defender who is up to the task. The 6-foot-5, 25-year-old Cesar Montes is uniquely qualified to do battle with a big forward like the Polish hitman.
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If the Monterrey defender can slow down the Polish attack and Lozano and Jimenez can find a way to score some goals, Mexico can absolutely beat Poland and get in the driver’s seat to move on in Group C.
Why Poland Will Beat Mexico
Poland manager Czesław Michniewicz might have the best nickname in the 2022 World Cup, as he’s known as “the Polish Mourinho.” If he can get his team to play like “The Special One” did back in the day, with strong defense and timely scoring, Poland will have a chance against almost anyone.
Poland’s chances are always tied to the boots of Robert Lewandowski — who has never scored in a World Cup — but Poland is deeper and more dynamic than most fans realize. The team has 20-year-old midfielder/defender Nicola Zalewski (who plays for the real Mourinho at Roma) and 22-year-old center-back Jakub Kiwior (who is so good with his feet, he could play for Pep Guardiola).
Also, Lewandowski shouldn’t be alone in the goal department. Arkadiusz Milik, Krzysztof Piatek, and Karol Swiderski all put in a lot of goals for their club teams in the past year and should give defenses a lot to deal with.
Poland also has a midfield that can hang with Mexico's talented group in the middle. Players like Grzegorz Krychowiak and Kamil Grosicki are getting up in age but can still create some magic for the forwards playing ahead of them. And whether Michniewicz goes with this experience or more youth, like Sebastian Szymański as an attacking midfielder, they will play alongside Piotr Zieliński, who is having an excellent season for Napoli (with Mexico's Lozano) and is probably the most in-form Polish player.
The reason Poland beats Mexico in their opening Group C match is that the European country is much more likely to score multiple goals than its North American counterpart. If Lewandowski can get off the World Cup schnide and Milik, Piatek, or Swiderski can add one, too, it’s game over.
Final Mexico-Poland Prediction & Pick
This game is incredibly important for both of these squads, so they’ll likely both come out a little nervous. However, Poland should have some confidence after coming out of a tough European qualifying process, and they will strike first.
Mexico is no pushover, and they should find a goal in this match as well. However, to give Poland a 2-1 win (and hit the over 2.5 goals), Lewandowski and company will get a second and that will put Mexico away to start Poland’s march to the Round of 16.
Final Mexico-Poland Prediction & Pick: Poland (+200); Over 2.5 goals (+152)
