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The 2022 World Cup is now down to the final eight teams. On Friday, December 10, at 10:00 am ET, Morocco, the winning team from Group F that shocked Span on penalties after 120 minutes of a 0-0 draw, will take on Portugal, the winners of Group H, who obliterated Switzerland 6-1 in the Round of 16. Now, it’s time to continue our World Cup odds series with a Morocco-Portugal prediction and pick!
With Cristiano Ronaldo looking on from the bench, Portugal destroyed Switzerland 6-1 in the most lopsided match of the last round. Ronaldo’s replacement, 21-year-old Benfica striker Gonçalo Ramos put in a hat trick in that match, which makes the squad even scarier. For its part, Morocco pulled the biggest and most meaningful upset of the 2022 World Cup in the Round of 16, playing Spain to a 0-0 draw and beating them in penalties. The team ranked 22nd in the FIFA World Rankings coming into the tournament, they are the lowest-ranked team left by ten spots.
In this World Cup odds piece, we will look at the odds of the match, discuss why Morocco could win, how Portugal could win, and then make our picks for this quarterfinals showdown.
Here are the Morocco vs. Portugal World Cup odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
World Cup Odds: Morocco-Portugal Odds
Morocco: +270
Portugal: -370
Over 2.5 Goals: +122
Under 2.5 Goals: -146
Why Morocco Will Beat Portugal
Morocco is the feel-good story of the 2022 World Cup. This has been a historic tournament for African nations. Teams from the continent have won more Group Stage matches than ever (seven), had two teams (Morocco and Senegal) reach the Round of 16 for the first time since 2014, and Morocco is just the fourth African side (Cameroon, 1990; Senegal, 2002; Ghana 2010) to reach the quarterfinals.
In order to beat Portugal, Morocco will have to follow the exact same blueprint that allowed them to upset Spain and send them home.
In that match, Morocco absorbed pressure and forced Spain to take bad shots when it did get looks at the net. The Spaniards put one shot on target out of their 13 taken while holding 77% possession.
If Morocco can hold a similarly strong backline vs. Portugal, they then have to accomplish one of two things. They either need one moment of brilliance on the counterattack against a Portuguese defense that loves to push high up the pitch, or force penalties, where the pressure (and Cristiano Ronaldo drama) will all be on the Portugal side of the draw.
Plus, it helps that Moroccan goalkeeper (and possible new Manchester United No. 1 next season?) Bono stuffed Spain’s three chances on penalties last round.
Why Portugal Will Beat Morocco
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After pouring in six goals in their Round of 16 win over Switzerland, Portugal is now tied with England for the most goals in the 2022 World Cup.
And that’s how Portugal beats Morocco, by simply outscoring them due to their superior offensive talent. Against a Morocco side that has advanced to the quarters on the back of just four goals in four games, that may only take a goal or two.
The biggest piece of intrigue on the Portugal side will be the fate of Cristiano Ronaldo. With 21-year-old Benfica striker Gancalo Ramos’ hat trick in the Round of 16, Portugal seemed to have proved once and for all that its best lineup doesn’t include one of the greatest players of all time.
That said, while Ronaldo won’t counter-press for his side for 90 minutes, is there anyone you’d rather have standing over a free kick or a decisive penalty late in the game?
A decisive Portugal win probably doesn’t include Ronaldo on the field until the outcome is decided. However, if Morocco frustrates Portugal like it did Spain, a late Ronaldo cameo could make a dramatic difference.
Final Morocco-Portugal Prediction & Pick
Like in March Madness, the Cinderella teams can make the Elite Eight but rarely make the Final Four. Those spots are reserved for the Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, and Portugal’s of the world.
The clock is about to hit midnight in Qatar, and we’ll remember this Moroccan team fondly, but not all that quickly by the time the next World Cup comes around in 2026. Portugal has some of the sport’s best creators in Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes, and Joao Cancelo, who have the young firepower in front of them — Ramos, Raphael Leao, Joao Felix — to pour in goals in this match.
And if Morocco does succeed in keeping it close, late, no country in the world (not even Argentina) have a closer with a flair for the dramatic like Cristiano Ronaldo.
That’s why Portugal wins 3-0 and hits the over by itself.
Final Morocco-Portugal Prediction & Pick: Portugal (-370); Over 2.5 goals (+122)
