The Main Card of UFC Macau is finally here and we're set to bring you a betting prediction and pick for the opening bout in the Light Heavyweight (205) Division. Zhang Mingyang of China will take on the debuting prospect Ozzy Diaz. Check out our UFC odds series for our Mingyang-Diaz prediction and pick.

Zhang Mingyang (17-6) won his UFC debut over Brendson Ribeiro for a Performance of the Night bonus back in February 2024. He's won his last 10 consecutive fights in the first round, with 14 of his 15 pro fights ending in the opening round as well. Zhang is the heavy favorite coming into this one. He stands 6'2″ with a 75-inch reach.

Ozzy Diaz (9-2) will be making his UFC debut in this bout. He notably lost to Joe Pyfer in Dana White's Contender Series, but has since notched two victories over in LFA and will be looking to make good on his opportunity this second time around. Diaz stands 6'4″ with a 79-inch reach.

Here are the UFC Macau Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Macau Odds: Zhang Mingyang-Ozzy Diaz Odds

Zhang Mingyang: -305

Ozzy Diaz: +245

Over 1.5 rounds: +190

Under 1.5 rounds: -250

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Why Zhang Mingyang Will Win

Zhang Mingyang has only made it out of the second round in his first professional MMA fight. Aside from that, all of his fights have concluded in the first round with Zhang coming out on top more often than not. He has tremendous power in the weight class despite his shorter size. He's more than willing to walk through several punches in order to land his own and the confidence he has in his hands is certainly something that carries him through the chaos.

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While he was underestimated on the betting lines in previous fights, his victory over an equally dangerous opponent in Brendson Ribeiro was no fluke as he continues walking through opponents with reckless abandon. He may have to fight a similar style against Ozzy Diaz and could easily run through him if he's willing to absorb some shots in return.

Why Ozzy Diaz Will Win

Ozzy Diaz will be making his UFC debut following two successful performances over at LFA. He ran into a buzzsaw with the DWCS matchup against Joe Pyfer, but he's gotten a chance to showcase his potential and the UFC clearly sees an exciting contest in this one. Diaz has since improved greatly and seems to be in better shape than he was. At 6-foot-4, his size and reach could become a focal point as he tries to maintain a safe distance from his opponent.


Ozzy Diaz likes to pressure forward, but he's overall very patient in picking his shots and exploding when necessary. His ability to move out of range will be a necessary skill during this fight, but he should look to return with the same force as he tries to gain Zhang's respect. Don't be surprised if we see some unorthodox strikes from Diaz as he tries to stun his opponent early.

Final Zhang Mingyang-Ozzy Diaz Prediction & Pick

This fight is bound to be a banger with the way Zhang Mingyang has ended each of the fights throughout his career. He takes little precaution in protecting himself, but he's fully confident in his chin holding up during an absolute brawl. Ozzy Diaz will be getting his second shot at the UFC, so expect a much more methodical and patient approach from him as the underdog.

While Zhang is the more dangerous striker, Diaz will be working with a solid size advantage and could keep his opponent at a safe distance if he remains consistent with his jab. Diaz has also shown great patience in picking his shots over the last few fights, so don't be surprised if he can catch Zhang on a few occasions and make this a much closer fight.

It'll also be interesting to see how Zhang Mingyang fares outside of the first round of this fight, but we still like him to get it done within the first given the betting odds. He's the much harder puncher and I expect his chin to hold up better during this fight, so we'll ride the betting favorite as he gets the job done inside of Round 1.

Final Zhang Mingyang-Ozzy Diaz Prediction & Pick: Zhang Mingyang (-250)