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The Buffalo Bills (13-4) and Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) continue to build on the league's top budding rivalry with another playoff meeting in the 2025 AFC Championship Game. It is time to continue our NFL odds series with a Bills-Chiefs prediction and pick.
The Bills will travel to Arrowhead Stadium after playing their first two playoff games at home. Buffalo is coming off a 27-25 win over the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round. The win gives them a small two-game win streak, which they will use to ride into the AFC Championship Game after shockingly losing to the New England Patriots in Week 18.
As the AFC's No. 1 seed, the Chiefs have yet to leave Kansas City in the postseason. The defending champions are coming off a controlling 23-14 win over the Houston Texans. While not the most impressive win, they remained in control from beginning to end with the result hardly in doubt.
Bills-Chiefs Last Game – Matchup History
The Bills and Chiefs have locked horns several times throughout NFL history but have intensified their rivalry in recent years. The “Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes” narrative has turned the matchups into arguably the biggest rivalry of the current era. Allen got the last laugh, leading the Bills to a 30-21 win in Week 11. However, it has become a well-known fact that Mahomes is 3-0 against Allen in their parallel careers.
Overall Series: Bills lead 30-25-1
Here are the Bills-Chiefs NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
AFC Championship Odds: Bills-Chiefs Odds
Buffalo Bills: +1.5 (-105)
Moneyline: +108
Kansas City Chiefs: -1.5 (-115)
Moneyline: -126
Over: 47.5 (-110)
Under: 47.5 (-110)
How to Watch Chiefs vs. Bills
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET / 3:30 p.m. PT
TV: CBS and Paramount+
*Watch NFL games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Bills Could Cover The Spread/Win
On paper, the Bills are the better and more complete team. They are the only team to record over 30 passing and rushing touchdowns in the regular season while finishing eighth in points allowed. Their well-rounded, disciplined approach was on full display when they became the first team to top the Chiefs in Week 11.
While the Chiefs have beaten the Bills in the last three playoff meetings between the two, all have been high-scoring affairs. Something about facing each other seems to bring the best out of Mahomes and Allen. That could certainly happen again, but Kansas City's offense was not the same high-speed unit this year that they typically have been under Mahomes.
Without a stable run game, the Chiefs threw the ball at a top-10 rate in 2024. However, Mahomes averaged just 6.8 yards per pass, ranking in the bottom half of the league. That can certainly happen when Mahomes' best offensive weapons are Travis Kelce, DeAndre Hopkins and Kareem Hunt, all of whom have seen their best years. The Bills' top-10 defense will be their biggest challenge in over a month.
Why The Chiefs Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Chiefs win close games better than any team in the league. They are 11-0 in one-score games on the year, as opposed to 5-2 in those decided by nine points or more. Everything about the AFC Championship Game suggests another tight barnburner on deck.
Kansas City has consistently forced gritty, neck-and-neck affairs with its iron-clad defense that allowed just 18.1 points per game in the regular season, the third-best in the league. Led by Chris Jones and Nick Bolton up front, the Chiefs thrived on winning the line battle, ranking top 10 in opponent yards per rush and rush yards allowed per game.
Steve Spagnulo's elite rush defense will be key in this matchup against the Bills, who enter the game with the fourth-highest rush rate in the league. James Cook leads the backfield, but Allen, Ray Davis, and Ty Johnson all mix in and receive a healthy amount of carries.
In the first meeting, the Chiefs limited Allen and Cook to just 77 combined rushing yards but ceded three touchdowns to the pair. The uncharacteristic slip-up directly led to the final score. Spagnuolo's unit boasted the seventh-best red zone defense on the year.
Final Bills-Chiefs Prediction & Pick
Kansas City thrives on forcing opponents to make mistakes, but the Bills simply don't commit them. The Chiefs' 16-2 record is currently the best in the NFL, but they are just 8-9-1 ATS, including a mere 4-6 ATS in 10 home games.
If the Chiefs show the same form they did in the divisional round, they will not win this game. With just 50 rushing yards and one wide receiver catching a pass, the Chiefs' defense harassed C.J. Stroud in the pocket to cruise to a win. The Bills will not commit the same number of mistakes as the Texans to permit the same game plan.
No quarterback was sacked on fewer dropbacks in 2024 than Allen, who had a sack rate of just 2.9 percent. Allen also had the second-lowest interception rate among starting quarterbacks, resulting in Buffalo's league-leading turnover margin. Save for the outlier Patriots game, every team that has beaten the Bills this season did so offensively. The Chiefs have not shown enough on that end to prove that they can do the same this time around.
Final Bills-Chiefs Prediction & Pick: Bills (+108)
