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We're once again going to be treated to the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL playoffs, this time in the AFC Divisional Round. Josh Allen and the Bills will hope to finally avenge their playoff mishaps against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
It's hard not to consider Allen the x-factor for the Bills' success in their upcoming divisional matchup, especially if you consider the Bills' plethora of significant injuries they have. Plus, Allen has obviously been a main catalyst for the Bills' success since his arrival, being labeled one of the top quarterbacks in the entire league.
Allen is 3-3 against the Chiefs in his career. The problem is that his three wins are only during the regular season, going 0-2 in the postseason. However, only once has Allen faced the Chiefs at home in Buffalo, with their other five meetings all taking place in Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium, which is a nightmare venue for opposing teams, especially in the playoffs.
Homefield advantage could be an x-factor for the Bills over the Chiefs
However, this time, the Bills have the luxury of hosting the Chiefs in Highmark Stadium, giving Mahomes his first-ever playoff road game. That alone could be an x-factor in this game, considering it will be unusual circumstances for Mahomes and the Chiefs. But four of the Chiefs' losses this season were at home, if that's any indication of how this could go.
Nonetheless, since Allen took the reins at quarterback in Buffalo in 2018, the Bills are tough to beat at home in the postseason, going 5-1; they're 0-3 on the road, with two of those losses against the Chiefs. So, you can't say that Bills Mafia won't be an x-factor, but we are looking for a specific player outside of Allen to play this part.
Dalton Kincaid can be the Bills' x-factor against the Chiefs
In the Bills' offensive lineup, rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid emerges as the pivotal x-factor against the Chiefs. If Sean McDermott and offensive coordinator Joe Brady are looking to alleviate some of the pressure off Allen, then Kincaid stands out as a prime target. The Bills' first-round pick has demonstrated his prowess by being the Bills' third-leading receiver in reception yards (673) this season, while averaging an impressive 76.7 per game over the last three weeks that includes one touchdown.
Kincaid's impact was evident in his playoff debut last weekend against the Pittsburgh Steelers, where he made a 29-yard touchdown reception. Another notable play saw him make a 20-yard grab over a Steelers safety's outstretched arm, leading to another Bills touchdown drive. He only made one more reception, which finished his day with three catches for 59 yards and one touchdown, but obviously his play was significant.
Throughout the season, Kincaid's performance ranked him third among tight ends in catch rate (80.2%) and sixth in receiving success rate (61.5%), according to The Score. These statistics underscore his reliability as a key player for Allen in moving the chains.
Against the Chiefs, tight ends have historically struggled to make a significant impact. The tight end position averaged just 4.8 catches, 44.6 receiving yards, and four touchdowns per game, per Pro Football Reference. In their last meeting in Week 14, Kincaid caught five receptions for 21 yards and no scores.
However, if the Chiefs aim to stifle wide receiver Stefon Diggs once again, who had only four receptions for 24 yards in Week 14, then Kincaid becomes pivotal in creating opportunities in the middle of the field, not to mention becoming Allen's main target. That's especially the case if Diggs can't play, as the receiver was out of practice with a foot injury, while fellow receiver Gabe Davis has been ruled out for Sunday's game.
