The Chicago Blackhawks received the second overall pick in the 2024 NHL Draft this season. On one hand, this is a great benefit to a rebuilding franchise. Especially for a team that picked first overall in 2023. However, Chicago received this pick due to a nightmare performance during the 2023-24 season. A nightmare performance they wish to avoid in 2024-25.
The Blackhawks added talent in NHL Free Agency to make the team better. Chicago signed Tyler Bertuzzi this summer while also reuniting with forward Teuvo Teravainen, as well. Additionally, they signed veteran defenseman Alec Martinez for added depth on the back end.
The Blackhawks certainly aren't anyone's favorites to make the playoffs. On paper, this is a better roster than the one they began 2023-24 with. In saying this, Chicago needs a miracle if they want to make a push for postseason hockey in 2024-25.
Looking at the Blackhawks roster, there are players poised to progress in 2024-25. However, there are players who are likely to take steps back on the ice this upcoming season. Here are two members of the Blackhawks roster who are potential regression candidates.
Jason Dickinson could regress
Chicago found a gem in Jason Dickinson when they traded for him in 2022. Dickinson made an immediate impact when he scored nine goals and 30 points in 2022-23. However, he made an even larger impact on the roster with his performance this past season.
Dickinson scored a career-high 22 goals and 35 points for the Blackhawks this past year. His 22 goals tied Connor Bedard for the team lead. Additionally, the 29-year-old Georgetown, Ontario native finished fourth on the team in terms of points.
Dickinson also had a strong analytical season to some extent. The veteran forward led all Chicago skaters with a Goals For Percentage of 55.38% at 5v5, according to Evolving Hockey. Additionally, he led Blackhawks skaters with 2.51 Goals For Per 60 Minutes.
All this said, there is evidence to suggest he vastly overperformed. This is clearly the case when looking at the counting stats. Not only did Dickinson score 20+ goals for the first time this past season, it was the first time he scored 10+ goals in a single campaign.
Additionally, he outperformed his expected analytics in a big way. He led Chicago skaters in GF%, but his xGF% (45.42) was nearly 10 points lower than his actual mark. This tracks with his GF/60, as well. His xGF/60 (2.06) was well below his final percentage.
Dickinson can certainly provide value to the Blackhawks this upcoming season. However, expecting him to come close to this performance may be setting the bar too high. The veteran Chicago forward could run into a bit of a wall in 2024-25.
Nick Foligno is a regression candidate
Nick Foligno joined the Blackhawks through a trade before the 2023-24 season. Chicago also received Taylor Hall in the deal, but Hall missed most of last season due to injury. However, Foligno played 74 games and became one of the team's better players.
Foligno scored 17 goals and 37 points for the Blackhawks in 2023-24. He ranked third above Dickinson in terms of points among Chicago skaters. He also finished in a tie with Tyler Johnson for fourth among Chicago skaters for goals.
Foligno had the third-highest Offensive Goals Above Replacement on the team in 2023-24, according to Evolving Hockey. His 1.4 WAR also ranked third among Blackhawks skaters. Overall, he made a positive impact offensively for this team.
Foligno may not suffer the harshest regression on the ice. However, it may be a bit unlikely he is a top-five offensive player for Chicago in 2024-25. Additionally, it's hard to imagine him flirting with the 20-goal mark in the year ahead. The veteran forward earned a contract extension with his performances. But his impact certainly could become less and less evident this upcoming year.
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