We're back for another betting prediction and pick for UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic, continuing coverage of the Main Card from Madison Square Garden. This next fight takes place in the Middleweight (170) Division as undefeated prospect Bo Nickal takes on the exciting Paul Craig of Scotland. Check out our UFC odds series for our Nickal-Craig prediction and pick.
Bo Nickal (6-0) is 3-0 under the UFC since 2023. After two wins on Dana White's Contender series followed up by two finishes in the first round, Nickal won his most recent fight via submission against Cody Brundage. He'll look to continue rising his stock against one of the best submission specialists in the division. Nickal stands 6'1″ with a 76-inch reach.
Paul Craig (17-8-1) has gone 9-8-1 under the UFC banner since 2016. After stringing together five consecutive wins, he's lost four of his five most recent bouts. He's on a two-fight losing streak after dropping bouts to Brendan Allen and Caio Borralho, so he'll have a huge opportunity to redeem himself with a win here. Craig stands 6'3″ with a 76-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 309 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 309 Odds: Bo Nickal-Paul Craig Odds
Bo Nickal: -1100
Paul Craig: +700
Over 1.5 rounds: +140
Under 1.5 rounds: -180
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Why Bo Nickal Will Win
Bo Nickal has really proved his willingness to learn and grow as a fighter over his last two bouts and at this point, there should be no doubts in his skill set becoming a serious problem within this division. Facing Paul Craig will be his toughest test as he sees a lethal submission artist, but Nickal's greatest strength is that he doesn't shy away from a challenge and has the utmost confidence in himself no matter who the opponent is.
While Nickal's striking game is taking all the necessary steps forward, he'll have to be more aware through the jiu jitsu transitions given Craig's ability to lock onto legs or arms from bottom position. Nickal is a frequent competitor in submission grappling tournaments, so it'll be interesting to see if he's willing to mix things up with Craig on the ground. This is an obvious test from the UFC to see whether he's ready to take the leap into the rankings.
Why Paul Craig Will Win
Paul Craig comes into this fight as the big underdog once again and we've seen him pull wins out of the fire in this spot before. While he was outclassed by Caio Borralho and Brendan Allen on the feet, he faces an opponent in Nickal who's much more aligned with his own skill set and where he wants to take this fight. We've seen Paul Craig pull guard in the past and we should fully expect for him to welcome Nickal into the position as well.
Paul Craig is also fearless in his nature and doesn't feel as though he should be this wide of an underdog. He's fully confident in his submission grappling against Nickal and believes he'll even have an edge in the striking over his younger opponent. Paul Craig will also be the taller fighter and is much better using his kicks, so expect Craig to march forward and not back down from trading with Nickal.
Final Bo Nickal-Paul Craig Prediction & Pick
Despite the betting odds, this fight will serve as the first real test for Bo Nickal against one of the best submission threats in the division. Nickal is already considered a world-class wrestler, but Paul Craig has 13 wins by way of submission and has been known to win fights against the toughest of odds.
It'll be interesting to see how long both fighters settle on striking with one another. Both men have solid defense and power to match, so I don't expect either to be a huge one-punch knockout threat. It's more than likely that we see this fight hit the canvas at some point.
From there, the real question will be whether Bo Nickal can survive the submission threats from Paul Craig's guard. Getting Craig onto his back will be hard enough, but Nickal will have to remain diligent and not over-extend himself into a submission.
Nevertheless, I suspect Bo Nickal's recent training with experienced grapplers will serve him well in protecting himself throughout this one. He's also very savvy on the feet and has the speed advantage in moving around the octagon and cutting angles on Craig. While the spread is wide in this fight, let's take Bo Nickal to win sometime late in the second or third rounds.
Final Bo Nickal-Paul Craig Prediction & Pick: Bo Nickal (-1100); OVER 1.5 Rounds (+140)
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