The San Diego Padres went all in for a championship in 2023, committing $255 million to their payroll. Unfortunately, things did not work out, and ownership has prioritized improving their financial situation in 2024. The Padres have several holes on their roster and their limited financial flexibility will make it difficult to improve the roster.
Xander Bogaerts is a talented player, but his contract represents one of the worst values in the league. Moving Bogaerts would give the team breathing room to address their rotation. Bogaerts’ deal has often been considered untradeable, but if the Padres are willing to part with one of their prospects, the shortstop could return home to the team where he developed into a star.
The trade
Padres receive: Marcelo Mayer, Richard Fitts and Blaze Jordan
Boston Red Sox receive: Xander Bogaerts, Ethan Salas (with Padres paying $5 million of Bogaerts' salary)
Why the Padres make this trade
The Padres make this trade for the simple reason that they need to improve their fiscal ship. Even while eating a small amount of Bogaerts’ contract, this transaction significantly improves the Padres' financial standing and gives them some level of flexibility to improve their roster.
Bogaerts is a good player, but he is not quite a gamechanger on his own. Moreover, even after losing Juan Soto, the Padres still have an above-average offensive lineup. Their big problem comes on the mound, and San Diego's front office will need to add pitching for the team to contend for a World Series.
Marcelo Mayer was a highly touted prospect coming out of Eastlake High School in California who was drafted fourth overall in the 2021 MLB draft. Mayer is a shortstop with significant offensive upside who has already reached the Double-A level in Boston's farm system.
While the young infielder might not be able to contribute to the big league club in 2024, he is certainly knocking on the door. If Mayer continues progressing at the current rate, he'll likely make the big leagues in 2025, and a cup of coffee this September isn't out of the picture.
While the loss of a highly rated prospect such as Salas would certainly sting, Mayer is a more than reasonable consolation prize for offloading Bogaerts' monstrosity of a contract. Blaze Jordan was one of the most hype power hitters in recent memory, and Richard Fitts is a young pitching prospect with upside.
Mayer has the potential to replace Bogaerts' production for a fraction of the price within the next two years, and Fitts could be a key component of the Padres' pitching staff. Fitts is ready for the show, and could make an impact in 2024.
Why the Red Sox make this trade
Xander Bogaerts may have one of the worst deal in all of sports, but the contract and the player are two completely separate things. While his contract is objectively awful, Bogaerts is still extremely valuable as a player.
He can play multiple infield positions while hitting for average and power. The Red Sox never wanted to get rid of Bogaerts, but they didn't want to pay him the money that he was asking for. Given the situation that the Padres find themselves in right now, Boston is vindicated for their decision. However, as a player Bogaerts is still justified in seeking out the most amount of money that he can earn, so there shouldn't be hard feelings from either side.
This deal would see the Padres eat a small amount of money that would still make their financial circumstances infinitely better, and Boston would get Bogaerts at a rate closer to which they would have preferred paying. Bogaerts is clearly comfortable in Boston, and it would be a smooth transition for both sides if he were returned to New England.
However, the real prize in this deal for the Red Sox is highly touted catching prospect Ethan Salas. The Dominican Republic native is just 17 years old, but he has already reached Double-A, which is considered to be the hardest jump in any prospect’s journey towards the big leagues.
Why this bonkers trade could possibly happen
This is one of the rare hypothetical transactions that is bonkers, but makes just enough sense for both organizations that it can't be ruled as off the table. The Padres would hate to give up their prized prospect in Salas, but they are desperate to create fiscal flexibility and offloading Bogaerts’ deal is the best way to achieve that goal.
Bringing back a youthful prospect with the upside to be an equal or better player than Bogaerts in the next few seasons at a fraction of the cost could make this deal worthwhile from the Padres' perspective. They'll also get two additional highly-rated prospects in this deal that are MLB-ready or close to it.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox would improve their team now and in the future. They would lose a top infield prospect but receive a player in return who plays excellent infield defense and can contribute to the major league club now. The fact Bogaerts is already familiar with the city of Boston would be the cherry on top. Bogaerts’ return to Fenway would limit the team's need to hold on to Mayer.
They would add a 17-year-old who could prove to be a generational talent at the catcher position. Catcher is one of the hardest players to draft for, and adding a talent such as Ethan Salas would set the Red Sox up nicely for their future. Bogaerts would help the team contribute now and Salas could be a key component of the organization's next core group of players.
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