The San Diego Padres won the first two games of their four-game series with the Atlanta Braves in May before they split the final day's doubleheader. The Atlanta Braves have won five of their last two games. They have been losing ground to the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League East, sitting 9.5 games back. The San Diego Padres have been even worse, losing six of their past ten games. They are on a four-game losing streak entering the opener on Friday night. Despite the losing skid, the Padres are only seven games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League East. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Braves-Padres prediction and pick.

Braves-Padres Projected Starters 

Reynaldo Lopez vs. Dylan Cease

Reynaldo Lopez (7-2) with a 1.71 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP.

Last Start: vs. Philadelphia, 6 IP, 6 SO, 2 H, 3 BB, 0 ER

2024 Road Splits: (3-2) with a 2.33 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP.

Dylan Cease (7-8) with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP.

Last Start: vs. Arizona, 7 IP, 8 SO, 5 H, 1 BB, 3 ER

2024 Home Splits: (3-5) with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP.

Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Braves-Padres Odds

Atlanta Braves: +1.5 (-200)

Moneyline: +108

San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+164)

Moneyline: -126

Over: 7.5 (-102)

Under: 7.5 (-120)

How to Watch Braves vs. Padres

Time: 7:15 PM ET/4:15 PM PT

TV: FOX

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why The Braves Will Cover The Spread/Win

The Braves have a clear pitching advantage in this matchup, as Reynaldo Lopez is among the best pitchers in the major leagues. Lopez has a scoreless outing in three of his last five starts, including a 6-0 win in his previous game against the rival Phillies. Lopez has a much better ERA and record on the home compared to the road, but he has a better WHIP on the road. It could signal that he is due for some positive regression in this game despite his already sterling numbers.

The Braves also own the pitching matchup when the starters are out of the game. Their bullpen has a 2.94 ERA overall and a 3.07 ERA over their last three games. The Padres bullpen has a 3.92 ERA and a 7.62 ERA over their past three.

Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win

The Braves have good pitching, but they need to clean up their offense to have a chance in the National League. The Braves have a .233 average and a .299 on-base percentage against right-handed pitching, averaging four runs/nine. The Padres have been much better against right-handed pitching, averaging .268 and a .326 on-base percentage with 5.1 runs/nine.

The Braves haven't been a great team away from Truist Park. They are 12 games over .500 at home, while they are just 22-24 on the road. The Padres beat the Braves three times on the road this season and should have a better chance of winning at home.

Final Braves-Padres Prediction & Pick

The discrepancy between these two teams in hitting won't matter if Reynaldo Lopez shuts the door on the Padres. Opposing teams have just ten runs over Lopez's last five starts, while Dylan Cease has allowed more runs/game by himself over his previous five starts.

The Braves' road record isn't good, but the Padres are also below .500 at Petco Park. The Braves have won four of Lopez's last five starts by more than two runs and it looks like they could do it again here.

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Final Braves-Padres Prediction & Pick: Braves ML (+108)