The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will travel to the Big Easy for the NFC Divisional Round, though there will be nothing easy about their matchup with the New Orleans Saints.
The No. 5 seed Buccaneers (11-5) will enter the near-empty Superdome as one of the hottest teams in football, fresh off a 31-23 road win over the Washington Football Team in the Wild Card round.
Their NFC South rival, the Saints (12-4), pose a different type of threat. New Orleans last played in Week 17, clinching a first-round bye with a 33-7 win over the Carolina Panthers.
Of course, the primary focus of this game is the duel between the two quadragenarian quarterbacks: Tom Brady and Drew Brees.
Brady has looked more like his prime self this season, as the 43-year old racked up 40 touchdowns in his first campaign in Florida. After making 13 appearances(!) in AFC title games with the New England Patriots, Brady is seeking a conference championship appearance in his first season in the NFC.
Brees, 42, has struggled with his arm strength all season, and fracturing most of his rib-cage in Week 10 — causing him to miss four games — couldn't have helped. Of course, he still has the experience, mind, and surrounding talent to excel. He was 9-3 as a starter in 2020, threw 24 TDs against six interceptions, and completed 70.5% of his passes. His 10.7 yards per completion is amongst the lowest figures of his career.
It's the first playoff meeting between the two legends, and — if Brees retires after the season, as has been rumored — it could be the only one we get with the Saints and Bucs.
Oh, and these teams teams rank first and second in DVOA.
My advice: Whether your betting ticket is a winner or not, just try to enjoy Bucs – Saints.
That said, let's preview the matchup and make a prediction.
Bucs – Saints Odds
At the time of writing, here's where the sportsbooks are for this Wild Card matchup:
Buccaneers: +2.5 (-102)
Saints: -2.5 (-145)
Over: 52.5 (-115)
Under: 52.5 (-105)
Why the Buccaneers Could Cover
The Saints swept the season series against the Buccaneers. Easily.
In Week 1, New Orleans predictably held the Bucs in check, winning 34-23. Disconcertingly for Bucs backers, the Saints also handed the Bucs their worst loss of 2020 in Week 9 — a 38-3 romp at Raymond James Stadium.
You could think about this two ways in Bucs-Saints. On the one hand, it's possible that Sean Payton owns Bruce Arians. Even if we disregard Week 1 — the first time a new-look Bucs team played together after no preseason — Tampa entered Week 9 as winners of six of eight and got utterly demolished, albeit on a short week.
Historically, as a pretext to Bucs-Saints Part III, the numbers don't indicate that it's particularly challenging to beat a rival for the third time in a season. However, this seems to be a starkly different Tampa team than it was on Nov. 8 — and that historical data doesn't include Brady-led squads.
The Saints know the Bucs have taken flight since the Week 9 loss, averaging 34.1 points and 438.9 yards — the second-most productive offense in football.
Wide receiver Antonio Brown has emerged as a difference-maker since his debut in the Saints blowout. In seven games since, Brown has caught 42 passes for 452 yards and four scores, adding a versatile element to Brady's arsenal of weapons.
Most recently, the Bucs roaster the WFT's 3rd-ranked defense (per DVOA) for 507 yards last Saturday.
Fortunately for Tampa, wide receivers Mike Evans (knee) and Chris Godwin (hip/quad) will be fully good-to-go.
Running back Ronald Jones II (quad/finger), who led the team with 978 rushing yards this season, remains questionable. As a ball-carrier, the drop-off from RoJo to Leonard Fournette is steep, and his presence would surely help the Bucs control the tempo against the Saints.
Regardless of who lines up in the backfield, the Buccaneers should use play-action against the Saints to open up downfield opportunities. Look for tight end Rob Gronkowski to be successfully disguised as an extra blocker against impending pressure, only to leak out for passes.
Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles likes to ramp up the pressure. The Bucs will force Brees to diagnose blitzes and make sharp, intermediate throws for the Saints, as Tampa's linebackers lurk over the middle.
One key matchup to watch will be Saints RB Alvin Kamara vs. Tampa's top-ranked run defense. Bowles likes to loads up the box with his 3-4 scheme, anchored by stud linebackers Levonte David and rookie Devin White. As good as Kamara is, the Bucs' run defense has gotten the best of him this season, holding him to 56 yards on 21 carries, total.
Kamara may have to carry the load even more than usual tonight, as “Swiss-Army Knife” Taysom Hill and RB Latavious Murray are not expected to play for the Saints.
Why the Saints Could Cover
The Saints rank fifth in QB hits and sixth in sack percentage despite blitzing with average frequency, per the Action Network (via Pro Football Reference). Traditionally, pressuring Brady without blitzing has been a recipe for playoff success. However, if the Buccaneers' offensive line protects Brady as effectively as it did against Chase Young and the vaunted WFT defensive front, the Saints' best plan of attack could be foiled. (Notably, star Bucs guard Ali Marpet missed Week 9).
The Bucs have no clear answer for Michael Thomas. The wideout has been slowed by injuries this season, but in two games vs. Bowles' defense in 2019, he accrued 19 receptions for 296 yards and two scores. Considering the short-handed New Orleans backfield and Tampa's run-stopping prowess, the 42-year old Brees may need to turn back the clock for some downfield completions to Thomas and company. If you believe that's in the old man's arm, ride with NOLA.
Don't sleep on the Saints defense either, as Dennis Allen's group finished 7th in overall DVOA this season, per Football Outsiders.
The Saints are ball-hawks. They bait QBs to throw it deep, and will happily surrender chunks of yardage until they create turnovers — an approach produced a league-leading 18 interceptions. Overall, Brady has been the best downfield passer in football this season, per Sharp Football Analysis, but he's struggled against New Orleans. He's tossed two TDs and five picks vs. the Saints this season, compared to a 38/7 ratio against the rest of the league.
The Bucs could pivot to a run-heavy game-plan, but taking the game out of Brady's hands would seem to benefit New Orleans, too. As ESPN noted, cornerback Marshon Lattimore has consistently shut down Evans.
The Saints also possess one of the best special teams units in football. The Buccaneers … do not.
Bucs – Saints Prediction
In conclusion: both these teams are extremely well-rounded and explosive. Ultimately, this heavyweight bout may be determined by Brady's ability to connect deep balls against a predatory Saints secondary, and the Saints' ability to control the game on the ground against an elite Buccaneers run defense.
Or, maybe it will come down to which future Hall of Fame QB has the ball last in Bucs-Saints.
PICK: Tampa benefits from an empty Superdome, the Bucs limit Kamara, and Brady has more left in the tank than Brees. Fittingly, Brees' career ends in another playoff heartbreak for the Saints.
TB 31, NO 27