With a Washington Commanders Week 1 game scheduled against the Jacksonville Jaguars, one guy who will be in focus is QB Carson Wentz. It seems like Wentz just hasn't been the same since his best season in 2017, so it'll be interesting to see how he performs in his third NFL team. Ahead of this Commanders-Jaguars game, we’ll be making our Carson Wentz Week 1 bold predictions.
Wentz is Washington's most recent attempt to find a long-term solution at the game's most vital position. Now in his third team in as many years, Wentz really needs this stint in Washington to go well if he wants to remain a starting quarterback in the NFL for the foreseeable future.
Having said that, the Commanders seem to provide Wentz with exactly the kind of environment he needs to redefine his value at this level. For starters, there's a legitimate case to be made that Washington's skill position players are the most talented of any bunch Wentz has ever played with. That alone should make him excited for 2022.
Wentz certainly has the skill to excel not only in Week 1 but also throughout the entire season. Again, we're talking about a Super Bowl champion, Al-Pro QB, and Pro Bowler here. Is his best behind him, though? Let's see and look at our Carson Wentz Week 1 bold predictions.
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3. Carson Wentz's deepest throw will be under 50 yards
The Commanders' coaches will pay close attention to a few crucial numbers this season and among them is the deep ball. Last season, Washington completed 32.4 percent of its passes deeper than 20 yards. That ranked just 23rd in the NFL. They signed Wentz in part because his arm power should allow for more deep ball attempts. Keep in mind that Wentz has completed 36.3 percent of such throws overall. In fact, he ranks 18th among active quarterbacks.
Last season, Wentz's longest throw was a 76-yard pass against the Baltimore Ravens. When he faced the Jaguars in Week 18, his long was less than half that at just 33 yards. In this game, with better options at wideout, Wentz should do better. Expect him to have a long of maybe 40-45 yards but certainly not more than 50.
2. Carson Wentz gets sacked 3 times
Last season, Wentz threw shorter and off-target more frequently than his peers. He was also sacked frequently. He finished generally between 21st and 25th respectively in those stat categories out of 33 qualifying passers. Needless to say, he was at the bottom of the league average.
One of the most common complaints leveled at Wentz's game throughout his career has been his tendency to extend plays and take terrible sacks. Some believe that there's a lot of evidence that quarterbacks, to a large extent, determine how often they are sacked. If we are to agree with that, then Wentz carries much accountability, especially when the Jaguars sacked him six times in Week 18 last season.
Remember as well that Wentz took a third-down sack in the Commanders' second preseason game this summer, knocking the offense out of field-goal range. The plain truth is Wentz, even if he's not a statue in the pocket, is prone to get sacked. We doubt if the Jaguars can sack him upwards of five times again, but don't put it past them to rush and sack Wentz at least three times in this game.
1. Carson Wentz nets 250+ yards and 2 TDs
Carson Wentz was the starting quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts the last time he appeared in a regular-season game. That was in Week 18 of last season when all the Colts needed to do was travel to Jacksonville and upset the lowly Jaguars, who came into the game with only two victories.
As things turned out, however, it was a game Wentz would rather forget. Wentz and the rest of the Colts offense were never able to find a rhythm. Consequently, Jacksonville booted the Colts out of playoff contention. Not surprisingly, Wentz's future in Indianapolis became uncertain after that. When they dealt him to Washington in March this year, nobody's jaws dropped.
Here's something to think about now that he is in Washington, though. Wentz has only had one 1,000-yard wide receiver in his six professional seasons, and that was Michael Pittman in 2021. No offense to Pittman, but he's not on the same level as Washington's Terry McLaurin.
McLaurin, who recently signed a three-year $71 million contract deal with the Commanders, has had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. He did this while catching passes from a handful of quarterbacks who were surely not as good as Wentz. Now, this duo of Wentz and McLaurin is looking ahead with no limit to what they can do together.
Carson Wentz talked about Week 1, Terry McLaurin and more on Wednesday. https://t.co/G3otMebmYK
— Commanders Wire (@Washington_Wire) September 8, 2022
Aside from McLaurin, there's also rookie Jahan Dotson, who formed a strong tandem with Wentz during the preseason. Dotson was clearly Wentz's favorite target throughout the spring, and the two hope their chemistry will result in more hookups against the Jaguars.
Expect Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown, and Cam Sims to complete Washington's receiving corps. They provide Wentz with a variety of stature and skill sets. Truth be told, the Commanders have an all-time high receiver depth. Wentz should only benefit from such after spending his whole career playing in mostly pedestrian receiving rooms.
This all leads to a stat-line that should be above average for Wentz. He averaged just 182.5 passing yards against the Jaguars in 2021, but with better receivers this time around, look for him to throw past 250 yards for the game. He should also put up at least two passing TDs with at least one going to McLaurin.
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