We continue our coverage of UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya with another betting prediction and pick for the next bout on the Prelims. We’ll see a ranked matchup in the Women’s Flyweight (125) Division as N0. 15 Casey O’Neill of Scotland takes on Brazil’s Luana Santos. Check out our UFC odds series for our O’Neill-Santos prediction and pick.
Casey O’Neill (9-2) comes in with a 4-2 UFC record since 2021. Opening her stint with four consecutive victories and an undefeated record, she’s suffered losses in her last two fights against Jennifer Maia and Ariane Lipski. After a number of fight cancellations, she’ll finally step back into action against a hungry opponent. O’Neill stands 5’6″ with a 69-inch reach.
Luana Santos (8-1) comes into this bout unbeaten in the UFC at 3-0, looking for her fourth-straight. She’s now notched a win by knockout, submission, and decision as she hopes to topple her first ranked opponent within the division. As her opponent grow increasingly difficult, this should be a solid litmus test to determine if she’s the real deal. Santos stands 5’6″ with a 67-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 305 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 305 Odds: Casey O’Neill-Luana Santos Odds
Casey O’Neill: +120
Luana Santos: -142
Over 2.5 rounds: -220
Under 2.5 rounds: +170
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Why Casey O’Neill Will Win
Casey O’Neill is looking to bounce back after her most recent two losses, but they should have served as positive for her knowing what she must now do to reach the next level of her game. She’s a very balanced striker and grappler, oftentimes using her kickboxing to set up her takedown attempts. She favors single-leg takedowns and is at her best when fighting from top position on the ground. Ending three of her wins by ground-and-pound, O’Neill will look to hurt Santos on the feet and eventually drag her into deep waters. She’ll have to be diligent, however, as her opponent is well-versed in the grappling as well.
Casey O’Neill has proven over her UFC run that she can take a punch while coming back even meaner and dishing out her own punishment. It’ll be very interesting to see if she chooses to be the aggressor during this one. While she’s been incrementally improving her striking, she may have her best chance to win by tying Santos up along the fence and landing her long knees up the middle. O’Neill is also very aggressive with her elbows, so she could be the one benefitting more from a scrappy fight.
Why Luana Santos Will Win
Luana Santos has been stellar through her first three UFC fights and after finally having to go the distance with a UFC veteran like Stephanie Egger, she proved her worth even more with a quick submission finish against a talented striker like Mariya Agapova. She’ll now be tested with her first ranked opponent, coming into this fight as the betting favorite. Santos is a very polished striker who doesn’t take too many chances on the feet. She’s very reactive to her opponents and she tends to go with the flow of the fight, using her well-balanced game to stifle her opponents. While O’Neill may welcome the wrestling here, Santos has four wins by submission to her name and will gladly welcome exchanges on the mat.
Defense will be crucial to Santos during this fight as O’Neill tends to press forward and push the action. Her opponent throws at a much higher clip, but Santos is the fighter landing more accurately through the exchanges. She also has an impressive 66% takedown defense, so Santos could be the one dictating where this fight takes place if her defensive strategies can hold up. Look for her to be extremely polished wherever the fight takes place as she tries to used O’Neill’s aggression against her.
Final Casey O’Neill-Luana Santos Prediction & Pick
The UFC 305 Prelims will lay host to yet another exciting matchup in this one as we see two hungry prospects in the Flyweight Division battle for the rankings. Casey O’Neill is looking to defend her position and bounce back from two losses, while Luana Santos looks to remain unbeaten and begin her run as a ranked featherweight.
Casey O’Neill is likely to be the fighter pressing forward during this one and we could see her have some success early if she starts working her boxing combinations. However, if she makes even the slightest mistakes, Luana Santos will capitalize as she’s been known to counter on her opponents extremely well.
We have to side with Luana Santos ever so slightly during this matchup as she’s just been the cleaner fighter up to this point. While this may be the toughest test of her career, she performs slightly better than O’Neill in the stand-up and she’s supremely confident in her ground game submissions. Let’s take Santos to win this fight, most likely by decision.
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Final Casey O’Neill-Luana Santos Prediction & Pick: Luana Santos (-155)
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