Benfica hosts Inter Milan on Tuesday for the first leg of the UEFA Champions League's quarterfinals. It’s time to check our Champions League odds series, starring our Benfica-Inter prediction and pick.
Benfica's eight-game unbeaten run in all competitions was ended by a 2-1 defeat at home to Porto on Friday. The home side is aiming to reach the UEFA Champions League semifinals for the first time.
Inter is on a six-game winless streak, and they drew away 1-1 against Salernitana last weekend in Serie A action. For the first time in 12 years, the Italian club has reached the last eight of this tourney.
Here are the Benfica-Inter soccer odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Champions League Odds: Benfica-Inter Odds
SL Benfica: +115
Inter Milan: +250
Draw: +230
Over 2.5 Goals: +118
Under 2.5 Goals: -144
How to Watch Benfica vs. Inter
TV: TUDNxtra, ViX
Stream: Paramount+, TUDN.com, ViX+
Time: 3 PM ET / 12 PM PT
*Watch soccer LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Benfica Can Beat Inter
Benfica is in such good form right now – albeit they have a tough game this weekend against Porto – and have won eight games on the bounce. They lead the Primeira Liga in Portugal by seven points with just seven games to go and they have reached this UCL quarterfinal without losing a match. In fact, only Napoli has scored more goals than them in this season’s tournament.
They won Group H with a formidable 4-2-0 record, made even more impressive by the fact it was a group that also included PSG, Juventus, and Maccabi Haifa, and joint-topped the group with PSG with identical records. Paired with Club Brugge in the round of 16, Benfica went through with a 2-0 win in Belgium and a 5-1 home success to reach successive European cup quarterfinals for the first time since 1968-69. Benfica is in the quarterfinals for the second season in succession but has lost all five ties at this stage of the UEFA Champions League,
Benfica comes into this game with a few injury concerns. Goncalo Guedes is carrying a knee injury and is unlikely to make the match whilst Mihailo Ristic and Julian Draxler are also deemed as doubts for the game owing to a muscle and ankle injury respectively. Nicolas Otamendi is suspended as well. Roger Schmidt will likely continue to seek the services of Joao Mario, who has six Champions League goals, as well as 17 goals and six assists in the Primeira Liga. Rafa Silva and Alejandro Grimaldo have five Champions League goal contributions.
All that said, there is a strong case to say none of those would have started here anyway with the side that won the last Champions League game liable to get the nod again here. Benfica hopes to build on its strong Champions League averages of 2.9 goals, 14.2 total shots, and 4.9 corner kicks.
Why Inter Can Beat Benfica
Inter Milan meanwhile is winless in five games having lost three and drawn two in that period. Simone Inzaghi now coming under a bit of pressure in the hot seat.
Inter's Group C campaign started and finished with 2-0 defeats against Bayern Munich, but they remained unbeaten in between those losses, collecting ten points including a decisive four against FC Barcelona (1-0 at home and 3-3 away) and wrapping up a spot in the knockout stage with a 4-0 success at home to Viktoria Plzen. The Nerazzurri knocked out Porto in the round of 16, winning 1-0 in Milan before holding out for a goalless draw in Portugal.
No quarter-finalist has recorded fewer goals than the 11 netted by Inter. Internazionale is only tallying 12.8 total shots, 5.4 corners, and 4.9 successful dribbles per game. On the defensive end, La Beneamata is making 17.8 tackles, 8.6 interceptions, 20.5 clearances, and 4.6 saves per game.
After Inter missed out on the Serie A title in 2021-22 by just two points to their city rivals, AC Milan, they are still very much in the mix in this competition. However, their chances of a Serie A title are long gone with Napoli 23 points clear of them. Inter has not reached this point since going out as holders to Schalke in 2010-11. Inter Milan last won the UEFA Champions League in the 2010-2011 season.
What should be noted though is a couple of fairly key players who are unavailable for selection. Milan Skriniar and Hakan Calhanoglu are both injured with expected return dates in April – just not in time for Tuesday. Inzaghi will continue to rely on Lautaro Martinez, who has 14 goals and three assists in the Serie A. Nicolo Barella and Edin Dzeko have 11 and 10 goal involvements, respectively.
Final Benfica-Inter Prediction & Pick
Benfica had just recently lost its second game in 2023, while Inter has not won the past six games. The Portuguese club has not shown signs of slowing down and they will likely take the first leg in the Estadio da Luz. Back the hosts to take the win in a high-scoring game.
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