On the surface, Week 4's matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers seems about as even as they come. After all, both are AFC West teams entering play with 1-2 records. But a closer look reveals that these clubs are heading in different directions. That info is sure to be helpful as we gaze into the crystal ball to preview this game.
The Raiders enter Week 4 having lost back-to-back games. Even their entry in the win column was a close call, as they squeaked by the Denver Broncos by a 17-16 score in Week 1. For the season, the Black and Silver have been outscored by 32 points on aggregate. Their arrow appears to be pointing down.
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On the other hand, the Chargers securing their first victory of 2023 might be the momentum this teams needs to right the ship after an 0-2 start. Whereas the Raiders could easily be 0-3 by this point, L.A. was just a few bounces from starting their season undefeated. In Week 1, they gave the Miami Dolphins all they could handle, dropping a tight contest 36-34. The Tennessee Titans needed overtime to dispatch the Bolts in Week 2, escaping with a 27-24 win.
Week 3, the Chargers gave QB Justin Herbert the ball and got out of his way. He attempted 47 passes, completed 40 of them, and led his team to a 28-24 win over the Minnesota Vikings. The Chargers have scored 86 points on the season and surrendered 87.
Playing these tight games makes for exciting viewing, but really reduces the margin for Brandon Staley's team. So what does Week 4 have in store? How about some Week 4 Raiders-Chargers predictions to whet the football appetite.
3. Asante Samuel Jr. nabs his first interception of 2023
Week 3's win over the Vikings feels like the blueprint for what the Chargers should do each week — let Justin Herbert toss it up and down the field and dare other offenses to keep up. That's not a formula for winning for Las Vegas though, as QB Jimmy Garoppolo is closer to a game manager than a gun slinger.
Garoppolo averaged 25 pass attempts a game through two weeks, and he had at least one interception in each contest. Facing the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 3, Garoppolo nearly matched his season total in one game, throwing 44 times. His reward? Three more interceptions. If the Raiders are forced to play catch-up and throw more and more, the Chargers defense will be in position to pounce.
CB Asante Samuel Jr. has intercepted two passes in each of his first two seasons. Let's give him his first one of 2023 this weekend.
2. Joshua Palmer catches a TD pass
The Chargers have to move forward without one of their top weapons after WR Mike Williams tore his ACL in the win over Minnesota. Fantasy players will have eyes on this game to see who fills that void, with WR Joshua Palmer and WR Quentin Johnson the leading candidates. It's easy to get excited about Johnson, a 2023 first-round draft pick with top-end speed. He's got big play ability and will likely threaten defenses on deep routes, much like Williams did.
But Palmer is more likely to soak up volume in the short-term. It's easy to forget that he ranked second on the Chargers in receptions last season, behind only RB Austin Ekeler. Herbert knows and trusts Palmer, as evidenced by his 72 receptions in 2022. Johnson might be the future, but Palmer is the now. Expect him to find the end zone on Sunday.
1. The Chargers will knock off the Raiders by double digits
This prediction is rooted in two decisions made in Week 3, one by Chargers coach Brandon Staley and the other by his counterpart with the Raiders, Josh McDaniels.
Facing a fourth-and-one on his own 24 with under two minutes to play and a four-point lead, Staley opted to go for it and try to clinch a W. It didn't work; RB Joshua Kelley was stuffed, and the offense handed the ball back to the Vikings in terrific field position. The L.A. defense held though, sealing the win.
Down by eight points with just over three minutes to go in the fourth quarter, Josh McDaniels opted to kick a field goal from the Steelers' 29-yard line. The kick was good, but nullified by a Pittsburgh penalty. The Raiders ran three more plays and nearly 50 seconds off the clock before…settling for the three points they had taken off the board.
Playing to stay in the game, as opposed to trying to win it, is bad decision making in general. Doing it against a team capable of lighting up the scoreboard like the Chargers are is a quick way to trade touchdowns for field goals.
All of that to say, don't expect McDaniels to outmaneuver Staley. The Chargers should win this game comfortably.