The Auburn Tigers take on the USC Trojans. Check out our college basketball odds series for our Auburn USC prediction and pick.
The USC Trojans badly need a quality win. They came close to beating Wisconsin and Tennessee at the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in late November, but fell just short. They also endured a brutal season-opening loss to Florida Gulf Coast which could hurt their profile. They need a win which will at least counter the FGCU loss and will also give their portfolio a boost before they head into Pac-12 Conference competition at the end of the year. That's why this game against Auburn, a likely NCAA Tournament team, is so important. USC can't continue to miss these chances for resume-boosting victories.
Auburn has lost only once this season, but the Tigers have not had a smooth ride if you look beneath the surface. They won a 43-42 game over Northwestern, and they scored a noticeably uncomfortable win over a Saint Louis team which struggled with Drake on Saturday and has not been very convincing this season. Auburn needs Johni Broome, the frontcourt centerpiece who transferred from Morehead State, to come up big on defense and on the glass to give Auburn a higher margin for error in this game. Auburn will need its defense to shine in this situation, especially with guard Wendell Green being uncertain to play after suffering an injury this past week. His status was still not known as of Saturday night, suggesting that he will be a game-time decision.
Here are the Auburn-USC NCAA Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Auburn-USC Odds
Auburn Tigers: -1.5 (-104)
USC Trojans: +1.5 (-118)
Over: 139.5 (-110)
Under: 139.5 (-110)
Why Auburn Could Cover the Spread
The Auburn defense can stop the USC offense. USC regularly struggles to hit 3-pointers and free throws. The Trojans don't have the elite knockdown shooters which would make their offense a lot harder to defend. USC is also dealing with another roster limitation — not only in this game, but for the season: Big man Vince Iwuchukwu, a five-star recruit who was supposed to take the baton from Isaiah Mobley as USC's next high-quality big man (flowing from Onyeka Okongwu and Evan Mobley in previous seasons), has been sidelined with heart problems. He endured an episode of cardiac arrest in July and has not been medically cleared to play by doctors. He was supposed to make a big difference for this USC team, but without him, the Trojans aren't whole. USC was hoping Iwuchukwu could make the Trojans so good on defense that their offensive limitations wouldn't matter.
USC doesn't have that defensive hammer. Its offense is unlikely to score enough against Auburn's tenacious defense.
Why USC Could Cover the Spread
If Wendell Green can't play, that's a significant limitation for Auburn in terms of getting up and down the floor. Auburn would love to run in this game so that it doesn't have to deal with USC's halfcourt defense. Auburn wants to score before USC's defense can set up. Green is a primary initiator of Auburn's attack, one of the central engines of the AU offense in particular and the Tiger team in general. Auburn would have to turn to a freshman, Tre Donaldson, to run the team if Green can't play. That's not an enviable situation for the Tigers, and it's something USC can take advantage of with a veteran backcourt of Boogie Ellis and Drew Peterson.
The other thing to note is that in Auburn's one loss this season, the Tigers allowed Memphis to hit 50 percent of its shots. Auburn is likely to force some USC turnovers, but if the Tigers' field-goal percentage defense doesn't improve, USC could score enough to win in what is basically a pick 'em game.
Final Auburn-USC Prediction & Pick
You should definitely stay away from this game, because of Wendell Green's playing status. If you insist on a pick, lean to Auburn.
Final Auburn-USC Prediction & Pick: Auburn -1.5
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