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The Austin Peay Governors take on the Murray State Racers. Check out our college basketball odds series for our Austin Peay Murray State prediction and pick.
The Austin Peay Governors have a decidedly mixed profile. Their collection of results so far this season does not lend itself to an easy and obvious verdict about this team. On one hand, the Governors took on some big nonconference challenges to start their season. They played North Carolina State and Purdue and got whacked, but the obvious purpose of scheduling two really tough games at the start of the schedule was to make subsequent games against less imposing teams a lot more manageable. The Governors basically scheduled two graduate school-level games so that subsequent course material would be easier by comparison.
However, the Governors then played a lot of very soft opponents. Austin Peay has six wins on the season, and three of them are against non-Division I foes. That's half their win total. What we have with Austin Peay is a team which has some good losses and not-very-good wins. That is not the kind of profile which makes it easy to render a verdict on the Governors through 11 games and a 6-5 record.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Austin Peay-Murray State College Basketball odds.
College Basketball Odds: Austin Peay-Murray State Odds
Austin Peay Governors: +6.5 (-112)
Murray State Racers: -6.5 (-108)
Over: 132.5 (-110)
Under: 132.5 (-110)
Why Austin Peay Could Cover the Spread
The Governors lost by one point to Western Kentucky earlier this season. That is one of the better teams they have played since their opening stretch against N.C. State and Purdue. Western Kentucky will be a contender for its conference championship and is therefore a team with a distinct possibility of making the NCAA Tournament. If Austin Peay could compete for 40 minutes against Western Kentucky, which is 8-2 on the season, it should be able to deal with a Murray State team which is only 6-4.
Murray State was a No. 7 seed in last season's NCAA Tournament, but this Murray team is nowhere close to the standard set by recent NCAA Tournament-quality squads for the Racers. Murray is 6-4 through 10 games, and it needed a massive comeback from a 15-point deficit to barely beat Chicago State, which has been one of the worst teams in NCAA Division I men's basketball for several years. Murray State has picked up losses to Bellarmine and Saint Louis which last season's team probably would not have endured. This is not the Murray State team you remember.
Why Murray State Could Cover the Spread
The Racers are going up against an Austin Peay squad which has just three Division I wins so far this season. The Governors have not established a particularly high standard of play through their first 11 games. If one was to evaluate the value of their opening two-game road trip against N.C. State and Purdue, one would have to say it didn't deliver the outcome the Governors were hoping for. Austin Peay's worst loss of the season might be a one-point setback against Howard, a team which is not very good and is ranked in the bottom 20 percent of the country if measured by the NET rankings and other similar metrics. Austin Peay's ceiling is hard to pin down, but its floor is relatively low.
Murray State isn't as good as last season, but compared to Austin Peay, the Racers are better. Keep in mind that Murray State has beaten Texas A&M by nine points and Tulsa by 17. Austin Peay has not delivered results anywhere close to those two games. Murray has the higher ceiling.
Final Austin Peay-Murray State Prediction & Pick
Stay away from this game, because these two teams are mysterious and not easy to get a read on, but if you absolutely insist on a pick, lean to Murray State.
Final Austin Peay-Murray State Prediction & Pick: Murray State -6.5
