The No. 9 Baylor Bears (20-7) visit the No. 14 Kansas State Wildcats (20-7) on Tuesday night! Action tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET. Below we continue our College Basketball odds series with a Baylor-Kansas State prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Baylor is coming off a shocking second-half collapse against Kansas but had previously won 10 of their last 11 games. Baylor sits at 9-5 and in third place in the Big 12. The Bears covered 54% of their games while 52% went over the projected point total. Kansas State is coming off a home win over Iowa State and sits at 8-6 and in fourth place in the Big 12. The Wildcats covered 67% of their games while 52% went over. This will be the second meeting of the season between the conference foes. Kansas State won a 97-95 overtime thriller in the first matchup.
Here are the Baylor-Kansas State college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Baylor-Kansas State Odds
Baylor: -1.5 (-118)
Kansas State: +1.5 (-104)
Over: 148.5 (-110)
Under: 148.5 (-110)
How To Watch Baylor vs. Kansas State
TV: ESPN2
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Baylor Could Cover The Spread
Aside from a three-game skid to start 2023, Baylor has been the usual, dominant team they've come to be known by. The Bears ran through their non-conference slate with an 11-2 record. They picked up a key win over Gonzaga while both their non-conference losses came to current Top 10 teams. That success has translated into Big 12 play. After starting 0-3 in the conference, Baylor has battled back and has lost just two games in their last 12 tries. As a result, Baylor fares well within the advanced rankings as they sit at No. 14 in KenPom and No. 12 in NET. That is largely thanks to their perfect 11-0 record outside of Quad 1. Additionally, Baylor's nine Quad 1 wins rank second in the country. With that, Baylor currently projects as a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Baylor is led by their strong offense as they rank 25th nationally with 78.5 PPG. The Bears do a good job moving the ball and finding open shooters as they rank 41st with 14.9 APG and 16th with 9.4 made threes per game. Additionally, Baylor is a lethal offensive rebounding team, ranking 20th nationally in offensive rebound rate. That could be a difference-maker tonight considering Kansas State has struggled to secure defensive rebounds.
Baylor features a triage of talented guards who can each take over and carry them to cover games. Future lottery pick Keyonte George leads the team with 16.6 PPG and he notably dropped 22 on Kansas State earlier in the year. Senior point guard Adam Flagler, too, was strong against the Wildcats in their last meeting where he scored 23 points and dished out seven assists. He ranks second on the team with 16.0 PPG in addition to 5.0 APG – fourth-most in the Big 12. Finally, junior LJ Cryer averages 14.9 PPG and serves as their de facto sharpshooter with 2.6 threes per gamer at a 43% clip.
Why Kansas State Could Cover The Spread
Kansas State has been the single-most surprising team in the Big 12 this season. After being near-unanimously picked to finish last in the conference, the Wildcats find themselves sitting in fourth place with just four games remaining. Kansas State starts the season red-hot as they went 12-1 in non-conference play. They picked up notable wins over Nevada, LSU, and Wichita State although a double-digit loss to Butler raised doubts about how they'd fare within the Big 12. They got off to a blistering 6-1 start in the conference but have since lost five of their last seven games. Nevertheless, Kansas State has strong underlying metrics. The Wildcats slide in at No. 24 in KenPom and No. 20 in NET. They've gone 13-1 outside of Quad 1 and do have seven Quad 1 wins. As a result, Kansas State currently projects as a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Kansas State is a well-balanced team who starts things first and foremost on the offensive end. The Wildcats average 75.4 PPG – 64th nationally. They are one of the best passing teams in the country, ranking 10th with 16.7 APG. While Kansas State isn't much of a threat from deep, they relentlessly attack the rim as they make the 16th-most free throws per game. Additionally, the Wildcats could take advantage of Baylor's carelessness with the ball as they rank 39th in force turnover rate.
Kansas State is led by the dynamic duo of Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell. Johnson ranks second in the Big 12 in scoring with 17.4 PPG and rebounding with 7.4. He was highly effective in their earlier win over Baylor, scoring 24 points and pulling down nine rebounds. Nowell is right there with him as he averages the fourth-most points in the conference with 16.9 PPG and the most assists with 7.5 APG. Nowell recorded arguably the best game of his career the last time these teams met when he scored 32 points and dished out 14 assists.
Final Baylor-Kansas State Prediction & Pick
After their second-half collapse on Saturday, I like Baylor to rebound and get revenge on Kansas State following their early-season loss.
Final Baylor-Kansas State Prediction & Pick: Baylor -1.5 (-118)
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