In 2022 it was five wins for Jedd Fisch and the Arizona Wildcats. This year, the over/under is set at 4.5, but Arizona football will be looking to take a step forwards toward bowl eligibility. It is time to continue our college football odds series with an Arizona football over/under win total prediction and pick.
For Arizona, it is all about continuing to trend in the right direction. After firing Kevin Sumlin following the 2020 season, Jedd Fisch took over and has done a solid job both on the recruiting trail and in the transfer portal. His first year did not see great results though, as the Wildcats went 1-11 in 2021. Last year, they made a big improvement, going 5-7, including three wins in Pac-12 play. Arizona will now look to make their first bowl game since 2017 when they won seven games under Rich Rodriguez.
To make the leap, Arizona will need to overcome the loss of some key players. Defensive backs Christian Young and Christian Roland-Wallace are both gone. Young is now in the NFL, as Roland-Wallace heads to conference rival USC. USC also took their top wide receiver from last year, as Dorian Singer heads to the Trojans. Still, Arizona returns four starters on offense, including quarterback Jayden de Laura as Arizona hopes to win six games this year and hit the over on their win total.
Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 4.5 wins: -144
Under 4.5 wins: +118
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Why Arizona Can Win 4.5 Games
For the Arizona win total to hit the over, it will start with Jayden de Laura. He was third in the Pac-12 in passing last year behind Caleb Williams and Michael Pennix. His 3,685 yards were also the third most in program history, while he led the Wildcats to the sixth-best passing offense in the nation. Still, it was just the first year in a pro-style offense for de Laura, and if he makes a step forward, even with the loss of their top wide receiver, the offense could be putting up a lot of points. That could be needed considering how poor the defense was last year. Fisch did a solid job bringing in transfers to help fix a defense that allowed 36.5 points per game. That may go down this year, but this will still not be a top-flight defense.
For a team looking to get to bowl eligibility, but not a top-tier program, the best ways to get there are through an easier non-conference schedule, and for the most winnable games to be at home. That is only partially true for Arizona this year. In the non-conference part of the schedule, their two most likely wins are both at home. They open against Northern Arizona and would start them 1-0 before they head on the road to Mississippi State. They return home for UTEP, which should be another Arizona win.
In conference play, they only need three wins to get to five wins. The most likely are Stanford, Colorado, and Arizona State. They should be favored in each of those games this year. Colorado is a later-season game, so they may have gelled by then and be better than expected. Arizona State is the last game of the season, and that game may depend on how much effort the team gives under first-year coach Kenny Dillingham. There is also the chance of Arizona pulling an upset. The Wildcats get Oregon State and UCLA both at home, which could be prime spots for an upset.
Why Arizona Can Not Win 4.5 Games
First, there are plenty of games that Arizona will not win this year. They will be major underdogs on the road to Mississippi State, home against Washington, at USC, and home against Utah. That is four losses in a 12-game schedule right there. Then, there is the fact that Arizona lost their top defensive back and potentially top defensive lineman on a defense that was ranked 126th out of 131 teams in regards to points per game last year. This means that any slightly above-average quarterback could end up having a fantastic day against the Wildcats.
That fact puts Washington State and Oregon State firmly in the loss column. It also calls into question Colorado and UTEP. To avoid going under, those games both need to be won, especially the one against UTEP.
UCLA is replacing a lot of guys, including their top offensive weapons, but will Arizona be able to pull off the upset two years in a row? It looks like UCLA will be relying on a freshman under center. This game is in November, so if the freshman develops under Chip Kelly, that will be another loss. That then leaves only Northern Arizona, Stanford, and Arizona State as wins. With all the turnovers on the defensive side of the ball, with a defense that was already bad, there may not be enough spots where Arizona can just brutally outscore their opponent this year. With that, the under 4.5 could be a solid pick for the Arizona win total.
Final Arizona Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
The Arizona win total pick all comes down to how well Jedd Fisch did on improving this defense through the transfer portal and recruiting. If he did as his track record suggests and was great, the over will easily hit. If he did not hit it out of the park though, this will be a struggle. There are two sure wins on the schedule in Northern Arizona and Stanford. There are three sure losses on the schedule. Every other game falls somewhere in between. For the over to hit, Arizona needs to win three between UTEP, Colorado, Arizona State, Oregon State, and UCLA. Most likely there are between two and three wins there. If the line moves up to five, the under is the perfect pick with the push insurance at five.
Arizona football starts the year 1-0 but falls in their next two before beating Stanford. They keep it tight with Washington State, Colorado, and Arizona State, but only get two wins there, leaving them at 4-8 for the year.
Final Arizona Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 4.5 (+118)
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