College Football is right around the corner with nearly 100 days remaining until the start of the 2023 season. Consequently, FanDuel has us covered with a plethora of College Football win total over/unders for teams across the country. Below we continue our College Football odds series with an Arizona State Football over/under win total prediction, odds, and pick.
Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Arizona State Over/Under Odds
Over 4.5 wins: -160
Under 4.5 wins: +128
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Why Arizona State Can Win 4.5 Games
Arizona has a disastrous 2022 season that saw them finish 3-9 overall and just 2-7 in a weak Pac-12 conference. They crushed Northern Arizona in Week 1 but managed just two wins the rest of the way – at home against Washington and on the road against Colorado. With a number of improved teams across the conference, the Sun Devil face an uphill battle in essentially doubling their win total in 2023. That being said, this Arizona State team looks a lot different than last year.
Former Oregon offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham enters the fold as Arizona State's newest head coach. Dillingham spearheaded a potent Oregon offense that ranked sixth in total offense and ninth in scoring last season. Oregon ranked in the top 20 in both passing and rushing offense and it's easy to see how Dillingham can bring that balance to Arizona State.
The Sun Devils get a major quarterback addition this season with former Notre Dame gunslinger Drew Pyne at the helm. Pyne started 10 games for the Fighting Irish last season. He averaged over 200 yards per game in those starts and tossed 22 total touchdowns to just six interceptions. However, incumbent starter Trenton Bourguet impressed in the spring game after throwing for 1,490 yards and 11 touchdowns last season. Whichever signal caller comes away with the job should put up monster numbers in Dillingham's offense. Leading receiver Elijhah Badger returns for his junior season after recording 70 receptions, 866 yards, and seven touchdowns in 2022.
Looking at their schedule, Arizona State needs to win five of their 12 regular season games to hit the over. Four of those games can be chalked up as losses – home against USC and Oregon and away at Utah and UCLA. They should secure two early wins with home games against Southern Utah and Fresno State in the first three weeks. Then, they need to win three games against California, Colorado, Washington State, and Arizona – all teams ranked around or below them in ESPN's preseason FPI. However, the Sun Devils' schedule also features a few potential upsets. A home Week 2 date with Oklahoma State looks rough on paper but it wouldn't shock anyone if ASU came out ahead. While a road matchup at Washington isn't guaranteed, ASU did upset the Huskies with a worse team last year.
Why Arizona State Can Not Win 4.5 Games
After winning just three games last season, the Sun Devils face an uphill battle in adding two wins with a first-year head coach. Not only is Kenny Dillingham installing his system into ASU for the first time, but he also faces his first season as a head coach at any level. While there is buzz around transfer Drew Pyne and four-star freshman Jaden Rashada, incumbent starter Trenton Bourguet could win the job. While Bourguet had his moments, he managed just a 2-4 record last year and threw an interception in all but one start. Additionally, the Sun Devils have to find a way to replace over 25% of their offense from last season now that star running back Xazavian Valladay is in the NFL. Valladay accounted for 18/39 touchdowns last season and there isn't a clear replacement for him out of the backfield.
On paper, ASU should beat Southern Utah and Fresno State to start the year. However, I wouldn't be certain of that. Fresno State won the Mountain West and crushed Pac-12 rival Washington State 29-6 in the LA Bowl last season. The Sun Devils did take down both Washington and Colorado last year. Yet, the Washington win was a massive upset and Colorado should improve with Deion Sanders at the helm. With plus odds on the under, a world exists where Arizona State fails to even reach last year's win total.
Final Arizona State Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
After a disastrous 3-9 campaign in 2022, Arizona State faces an uphill battle in hitting the over on 4.5 wins. That said, optimism runs rampant in Tempe with a new coach and quarterback in town. Consequently, I like the Sun Devils the over and see them winning 5-7 games.
Final Arizona State Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 4.5 (-160)
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