Buffalo football is looking to go to their fifth bowl game in the last six years. It is time to continue our college football odds series with a Buffalo football over/under win total prediction and pick.
Last year was another bowl game for Buffalo. The only year that Buafflo missed was 2021, the first year under coach Maurice Linguist. This streak of success for Buffalo is unprecedented in its history. The team returned to the top level of college football in 1999. Their early history never saw a bowl game, and before 2018, they had only been twice. Since then, it is four bowl games, including three wins.
Last year was a 6-6 regular season topped off with a win in the Camellia Bowl. Buffalo's season in 2022 was a tail of three different seasons. The first three games saw a loss to Maryland, but then it was followed by a last-second loss to FCS-level Holy Cross. Buffalo then fell to Coastal Carolina to make it an 0-3 start. They then turned around the season. They won five straight games, averaging 36 points per game on offense while giving up just 18.6. Then, the collapse came. The offense stopped scoring and the defense stopped shutting people down. Three straight losses but their hopes of getting back into a bowl game are in jeopardy. In the last game of the season, they won over Akron with a Cole Snyder touchdown pass with just over a minute left.
Buffalo lost a lot in the offseason though. They rank 110th in returning production from last year. Gone is star linebacker James Patterson and also the top three receivers. The run game was not great last year, but they do return every one from it. With so little production coming back, can Buffalo go bowling again?
Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Buffalo Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 6.5 wins: +104
Under 6.5 wins: -130
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Why Buffalo Can Win 6.5 Games
For Buffalo to get to seven wins, they need to have a 3-1 start in non-conference play. It will open with a loss as Luke Fickell and Wisconsin will beat them. Buffalo cannot lose, and will not lose to an FCS team again this year. Fordham is next on the schedule, and while Fordham has some quality players, it is not enough to overcome Buffalo. Liberty will be interesting, but Liberty is having to replace a lot on defense. This will allow Buffalo to get their offense going, as they have one of the best quarterbacks in the MAC. Finally is a big game against Louisana. Lousiana has not been nearly the same without Billy Napier. Napier brought in quality talent and then took it with him to Florida. Buffalo has the talent advantage here, especially with Cole Snyder facing a weak secondary in Louisana.
With three wins already, it is another four needed in conference play. The Akron game will open conference play. If Buffalo and Shaun Dolac, Daymond Williams, and Jaylon Bass can contain DJ Irons, they will win. If they let Irons run all over them and make time to get his receivers open, it will be a loss. Next is Central Michigan. That was a tough game last year and a close loss primarily due to a defense that was beaten up. They should not be that this year and Buffalo will get a win. Against Bowling Green, there is not going to be enough defense for Buffalo to stop Connor Bazelak. Their only hope will be to pick on this weak secondary, which Snyder can do. They will most likely lose one of these first three, placing them at five wins.
Kent State will also provide a win as they will be horrible this year. They lost way too much talent to keep up with Buffalo. Toledo brings back way too much talent and will be the best team in the MAC, meaning Buffalo has six wins with three games left to play. Ohio the next week should provide another loss. Meaning Buffalo has to beat Miami (OH) or Eastern Michigan to get to seven wins. Buffalo will have the better QB in the first game and can win an offensive showdown with Miami (OH). Eastern Michigan provides an issue in Samson Evans at running back, but the front seven is good enough to slow him down. The EMU defense will not have an answer for Snyder, and they get the win.
Why Buffalo Can Not Win 6.5 Games
Buffalo has a lot of games on the schedule they can win, they also have a lot of games they can easily slip up and lose. They will start 1-1 in all likelihood, but Libery and Louisana both present tests. Liberty was a solid team last year until their offense quit trying after all the Hugh Freeze rumors started. If the offense gets back on track, they have more than enough skill to take out Buffalo. Louisana returns almost their entire offensive unit this year. It was not a stellar one, but with them all back, they should improve enough to provide Buffalo with a loss.
With a 1-3 record coming out of non-conference plays, Buffalo can only afford two more losses. Those will be to Toledo and Ohio. These two teams are far and away the best in the conference and will be winning both of these games. With five losses on the record, every other game is a must-win. Akron could easily be a loss. Irons extends plays, and if the Buffalo front seven does not get to him, he will pick on a weak secondary. Last year Snyder showed he will make big mistakes, that will cost them against Bowling Green, as that game is slated for a shootout.
Then there is Eastern Michigan. This game is the last one of the season in Buffalo. It will be cold for sure, and a possibility it could be snowing. If that is the case, the best running game will win. Buffalo's running game is not that good. Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan is the best in the conference. Samson Evans will win Eastern Michigan at least one game if not two. This is one of them.
Final Buffalo Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
Buffalo needs to start strong. If they do not come out of the non-conference schedule with at least two wins, the under is going to hit. There are three losses on the schedule that seem assured and only two games that seem like probable wins. Even with that, Buffalo can beat Akron, Miami (OH), and Eastern Michigan. Combining that with wins over Central Michigan and Kent State will lead to an over. They finish the season 7-5, and once again go bowling.
Final Buffalo Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 6.5 (+104)
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