Last year, Iowa won seven regular season games and will look to improve on that this year. It is time to continue our college football odds series with an Iowa football over/under win total prediction and pick.
Last year, Iowa football struggled on offense. They scored just 18.7 points per game and that led to offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz receiving a new contract with a 25 points per game mandate. To help reach that goal, they brought in transfers quarterback Cade McNamara and tight end Erick All, both from Michigan. Iowa did hit the 25 points in a game marker three times last year, all of those games resulting in wins.
They opened the season with a strong defensive showing, the hallmark of this time last year. Beating South Dakota State 7-3. The defense continued to shine, but they lost 10-7 to Iowa State the next week. After wins over Nevada and Rutgers, Iowa would lose three straight to Michigan, Illinois, and Ohio State. They then went on a nice four-game winning streak, where they gave up a combined 36 points. The season ended with a loss to Nebraska though, before a bowl win over Kentucky.
Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Iowa Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 7.5 wins: -162
Under 7.5 wins: +132
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Why Iowa Can Win 7.5 Games
To hit this win total, the offense will need to improve. If they can get to 25 points per game, with the level of defense they have, they can easily hit the over. It has to start in the non-conference schedule. Iowa will be heavily favored to start the season over Utah State and will get that win. After that, they travel to Iowa State. The Cyclones will be favored in that one, but last year, it was a 10-7 game. If Cade McNamara gets this offense rolling, they will be winning this game, before hosting Western Michigan. Again, they will be heavy favorites, and coming out of the non-conference schedule 3-0 will put them in a prime position to hit eight wins.
They will find their first loss of the season at Penn State. It was close last year, but Penn State is continuing to improve and will be contending for the Big Ten title. With the Michigan State game at home, the Hawkeyes will be favored. A win here is a must, and they will have the defense to slow down a poor Michigan State offense this year. Iowa will make it two in a row when they have Purdue. Purdue is losing a lot, but that is mainly on defense. The Hawkeyes will need to take advantage of that. Purdue should be another win for Iowa, but they could easily lose this game.
Following the Purdue game will be Wisconsin. Wisconsin is going to be the best team in the West division and wins this game. Then comes another stretch of winnable games with Minnesota, Northwestern, and Rutgers. Northwestern and Rutgers must win for Iowa to hit the over and will. Illinois and Nebraska end the season. Illinois is losing a lot on defense and does not have a quarterback, while Nebraska will be finishing its first year under a new head coach. With a 3-0 non-conference record, and wins over Northwestern and Rutgers, the Hawkeyes need just three more wins. They will get that between Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska, and Minnesota.
Why Iowa Can Not Win 7.5 Games
Iowa lost too much production in the offseason. First, on offense, Cade McNamara will be an upgrade at QB, but losing Sam LaPorta is a huge loss. Then on defense, they lose Jack Campbell, Riley Moss, and over half of its regular players. With many of the offenses, they will be facing set to improve, it will be too much to overcome. They will win in week one, but week two will be too much for them. Iowa State brings back the 28th most in terms of offensive production. The offense will take a step forward, and against a defense that will still be trying to figure things out, Iowa loses.
Iowa has nearly guaranteed losses to Penn State and Wisconsin, but even more for Iowa is the timing of the Wisconsin game. That game is right after Purdue and will provide Iowa with a look-ahead spot. Purdue is 57th in returning production from a team that went to the Big Ten Title game last year. Purdue gets a win in this one, giving Iowa four losses on the season.
Finally, Nebraska at the end of the year will potentially have a lot to play for. Getting to a bowl in Matt Rhule's first year would be huge. That came could be the deciding game. Ruhle is a good defensive coach and will shut down this Iowa offense, which could easily make for another loss for the Hawkeyes.
Final Iowa Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
Iowa only won seven in the regular season last year and looks primed to make a regression. On offense, they will be better with Cade McNamara and also return a very solid running back. They also look to not be as good on defense. Losing Jack Campbell will be a big deal for this defense and not someone they can easily replace. With that, the schedule does dodge Michigan and Ohio State. They get Penn State, but also Rutgers from the east. With Illinois taking a step back, they should get the win there.
This win total comes down to a few games. They need to beat two of Iowa State, Purdue, Nebraska, and Minnesota. If they lose three, there is no chance for them to hit the over. They do lose three and finish 7-5.
Final Iowa Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 7.5 (+132)
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