Iowa State will attempt to improve upon their disappointing showing as they head into the 2023 season. We are here to showcase our college football odds series, making an Iowa State over-under win total prediction and pick.
The Iowa State Cyclones went 4-8, including 1-8 in the Big 12 in 2022. Now, they look to put much better results in the coming season. The 2022 campaign started well as they destroyed Southeast Missouri State 42-10. Then, they edged Iowa 10-7 on the road. The Cyclones followed this up with a 43-10 thrashing of Ohio. Unfortunately, this is where things went downhill.
They fell 31-24 to Baylor. Next, they lost 14-11 on the road against Kansas. The Cyclones then suffered a 10-9 defeat at home to Kansas State. Then, they suffered a 24-21 nailbiting loss to the Texas Longhorns on the road. Iowa State continued its struggles, losing 27-13 to Oklahoma. Finally, they ended the cold streak by defeating West Virginia 31-14. But they fell back into their losing ways, falling 20-14 at Oklahoma State. Sadly, they kept it up with a 14-10 loss to Texas Tech. The Cyclones then ended the season with a thud, falling 62-14 on the road to TCU.
Iowa State was 0-4 against ranked teams. Furthermore, they went 1-6 in one-score games. Their inability to win close games hurt them throughout the season, and they could not win the thrilling matchups.
The Cyclones lost three players to the NFL Draft. First, the New York Jets drafted defensive end Will McDonald in the first round with the 15th pick. The Houston Texans drafted wide receiver Xavier Hutchinson in the sixth round with the 205 pick. Finally, the Green Bay Packers took safety Anthony Johnson in the seventh round with the 242th pick.
Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 5.5 wins: -168
Under 5.5 wins: +136
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Why Iowa State Can Win 5.5 Games
They lost so many close games in 2022. Thus, if they had just won three of the close games they lost, they would have finished 7-5 instead of 4-8. It would have earned them a bowl game. Instead, they lost these games and now will attempt to improve. Adding a good transfer can do that.
Wide receiver Jayden Higgins joins the Cyclones from Eastern Kentucky. Significantly, he caught 58 passes for 757 yards and 10 touchdowns last season. Running back Cartevious Norton will look to make an impact this season. Ultimately, he rushed 87 times for 312 yards and two scores. But he also did not fumble the ball once.
The Cyclones converted 41.88 percent of their third-down opportunities. Additionally, they also converted 55.56 percent of their fourth-down chances. Iowa State will look to improve on those marks with a revamped running game and their new receiver.
The defense allowed an average of 20.25 points per game. Amazingly, they were the reason the Cyclones were competitive in most games. They also allowed only 29.30 percent conversion rate on third downs. Moreover, Iowa State allowed 58.62 percent of fourth-down conversions.
Iowa State will win six games if their offense can improve on last year's results. Then, they must find a way to win the close games.
Why Iowa State Can Not Win 5.5 Games
There is a quarterback competition going on at Iowa State. Therefore, someone must emerge for the Cyclones to have a chance on offense. Hunter Dekkers is the defacto starting quarterback and had a 66 percent completion rate for 3,044 yards, but also threw 14 interceptions. Thus, he will have competition for the quarterback position this season. Redshirt freshman Rocco Becht, four-star freshman J.J. Kohl, and Tanner Hughes, a transfer from Butte College, will all compete for the job. Ultimately, someone has to emerge to lead an offense that produced only 19 total touchdowns. The Cyclones need better red-zone production, going 31 for 44. Also, they only scored 22 touchdowns in 44 attempts.
The defense was solid, but they could have been better. Unfortunately, there were some injuries. Defensive back Malik Verdon had seven solo tackles with one pass deflection over a couple of games before suffering a season-ending injury. Furthermore, the team had only seven total interceptions. That mark must improve.
Iowa State will not win six games because there are still many issues at quarterback. Also, they have issues on the back end of the defense. It will result in more close losses.
Final Iowa State Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
Iowa State is not a great team. However, losing six games by one score indicates there may be a reversal of fortune. Expect them to win two more games to barely cover the spread.
Final Iowa State Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 5.5 wins: -168
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