The Maryland Terrapins are set to face the Michigan State Spartans this weekend. Check out our college football odds series, which includes our Maryland-Michigan State prediction, odds, and pick.

The Maryland Terrapins would consider their season a success if they gain bowl eligibility. That is what they are playing for this Saturday in East Lansing. Maryland is 5-4, having defeated Indiana and Illinois in Big Ten play while also beating West Virginia, a crucial early-season win which gave Maryland the inside track to a bowl season. Even if Maryland loses this game to Michigan State and next week's game against favored Michigan, the Terps can still qualify for a bowl if they win their regular-season finale at Rutgers. They get several bites at the apple, and that last one against Rutgers could taste the sweetest.

Maryland pushed Penn State in a game which was much more competitive than the final 31-14 score this past weekend, but a sea of mistakes — mostly dropped passes, also some turnovers — ruined the Terps' upset bid. Maryland shows glimpses of being a very good team but can't get out of its way long enough to truly thrive. Keep this in mind when making a Maryland-Michigan State pick.

Michigan State recalled a moment in its history this past weekend. In 1999, the Spartans had just won against an unbeaten Michigan team. They defeated the Wolverines and then were upset by Purdue. That Purdue team had Drew Brees as its quarterback. This Purdue team isn't as good as the 1999 Purdue team, but it still did manage to beat No. 3 Michigan State, one week after the Spartans had defeated previously unbeaten Michigan. What happened in 1999 recurred in 2021. That's an amazing fact to contemplate when making a Maryland-Michigan State prediction.

Now, Michigan State will try to shake off the Purdue loss and stay in every championship chase: for the College Football Playoff, for the Big Ten East Division, and for the Big Ten title. It's a huge game, as college football odds analysts know.

Here’s how the bookmakers have set the Maryland-Michigan State odds:

College Football odds: Maryland-Michigan State Odds

Maryland: +12.5 (-110)

Michigan State: -12.5 (-110)

Over: 60.5 (-115)

Under: 60.5 (-105)

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Why Maryland Could Cover the Spread

The Michigan State Spartans are carrying several injuries. Those roster limitations affected MSU in its loss to Purdue. Offensive tackle Jarrett Horst didn't play against the Boilermakers. It was revealed earlier this week that guard Matt Carrick is out for the rest of the season. Attrition is hitting the Spartans at the worst possible time, and it could certainly alter the calculus of this game. Michigan State has a much smaller margin for error in light of these injuries. Purdue exploited those margins, and Maryland has a chance to do the same in Week 11.

Why Michigan State Could Cover the Spread

The Maryland Terrapins are not a very good team. Their only two Big Ten wins came against mediocre opponents, Illinois and Indiana. They also won an FCS game against Howard in addition to the West Virginia victory, plus a win versus Kent State. The Terps have won the games they are supposed to win and lost the games they are supposed to lose, with the West Virginia game being the one possible exception. 

Michigan State is a good team, playing at home, coming off a loss, knowing the stakes are high. If you are thinking about the Maryland-Michigan State odds, trusting the better team is a reliable formula.

Final Maryland-Michigan State Prediction & Pick

Michigan State will win, but this feels like a close game. Maryland gave Penn State a battle despite losing by 17. A late pick-six on a pass deep in Penn State territory turned what might have been a 24-21 final score into a 31-14 final score. Michigan State's mounting injuries leave the Spartans in a vulnerable position. They could win this game by a big margin, but their injuries make them a lot less likely to blow the doors off the Terps. This game will probably be something like 27-17 for the Spartans.

Final Maryland-Michigan State Pick: Maryland +12.5