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The goal for Miami (OH) football is to get to a third straight bowl game for the first time since 1973-75. It is time to continue our college football odds series with a Miami (OH) football over/under win total prediction and pick.
Head Coach Chuck Martin has done a great job of turning this program around. After nine years of not making just one bowl game after Terry Hoeppner left the school, Martin has made it to four bowls in nine years. It could have been six though. In 2018, Miami (OH) was bowl eligible, but not invited, and in 2020 they did not go to a bowl game due to the COVID-19 pandemic, despite having a winning record.
Miami (OH) returns a fair amount of production as well. They are sitting 40th in off of college football in returning production, primarily because they are returning 76% of their defense. The offense brings back Brett Gabbert, who was solid in 2021, and 2022 before being knocked out with an injury. They lose Mac Hippenhammer, but they bring back some other major weapons in the passing game. Miles Marshall showed his speed in the bowl game and was just missed by Aveon Smith by on a deep pass. Kelen Davis showed he is a big and reliable target in that game as well, catching four balls in the bowl game loss.
The defense lost their top corner but brought back four of their other five top guys. Matthew Salopek is back, as is most of a solid defensive line. This was one of the best defenses against the rush last year, and also in terms of points allowed. They should continue to improve this year, and defense will be the main focus of this squad.
Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Miami (OH) Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 6.5 wins: -170
Under 6.5 wins: +138
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Why Miami (OH) Can Win 6.5 Games
Miami (OH) is looking to get to seven wins in a season for the third time in the last four full seasons. They have not hit seven wins in the regular season since 2019. That year they went 8-5 before losing in the LendingTree Bowl. The non-conference slate provides some potential for early wins though. They open against Miami (FL) in Florida. Last year, Miami (OH) defeated a power five opponent, but that was Northwestern. This year, they could do it again. The Hurricanes do not have their quarterback situation figured out and the RedHawk's secondary is solid. Still, this is most likely a cover of the current +17 spread and not a win.
The first win of the season comes in week two at UMASS. UMASS was better than expected last year, but still bad. They get the win there and will get their second win two weeks later over Delaware State. In between those games is a date at Cincinnati which will most likely be a loss. This means the Red Hawks need five conference wins to get to seven. The opening part of the conference schedule provides that. Kent State lost by far the most players from last year, and the RedHawks will be heavily favored. Then Bowling Green comes to town, and while they have a great offense, it plays right into the strength of Miami (OH) and they start with two wins. After that is a game at Western Michigan. Once again Miami (OH) will be favored and will pick up their third win in a row.
Then they have to face the two favorites in the conference with the two best quarterbacks in the conference. First is Toledo and then Ohio. Most likely these are losses, dropping the RedHawks to 5-4 on the season and still in need of two wins. With Akron next, as long as the RedHawks can contain DJ Irons and not let him extend or make plays with his legs, they will win. Akron does not have a solid defense and is one-dimensional on offense. With six wins and two games left, they only need one more. That one more comes against Ball State. Ball State lost most of its playmakers and does not have a solid offensive identity. The Red Hawks' defense shuts them down and gets them to six wins.
Why Miami (OH) Can Not Win 6.5 Games
Miami (OH) cannot have a slip-up if they expect to get to seven wins. First, they have two losses in the non-conference schedule. They are already heavy underdogs to Miami (FL) and will be against Cincinnati as well. Then their conference schedule provides some challenges. Toledo and Ohio are the odds-on favorites to win the conference. They have a huge odds advantage over the rest of the field, including the team sitting third, which is Buffalo. These are three conference games that Miami (OH) will be underdogs in. Two of those games are at home, but the Miami (OH) offense will not be able to put up enough points to stay in these games.
That already places them with five losses potentially, and while they should be favored in the rest of their games, a slip-up is possible. A big spot for that is Bowling Green. Bowling Green will have Connor Bazelak at quarterback this year. In each of the past three seasons, he has thrown for at least 2,300 yards. He has done all of that while facing SEC and Big Ten defenses. Bazelak may not be a top-end power five quarterback, but at the MAC level, he will shine and elevate the receivers around him. The Miami (OH) defense is good, but may not be good enough to stop him.
There is also the Akron game. DJ Irons led the team in both rushing and passing last year, despite missing two games. He is tough to contain on the outside and in short-yardage situations he can easily get first downs. If Irons has a big game, then Akron can pull off the win. Finally, there is Western Michigan. The Broncos beat Miami (OH) last year, and this time they are the home team. They are 121st in returning production, so this seems like the least likely place they take their loss.
Final Miami (OH) Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
Based on ESPNs FPI, returning production, and projected odds for each of these games, this team should finish right at seven wins. They have the defense that could also pull an upset in there as well. Still, they have a lack of offense that could easily cost them a game or two. With the heavy juice on the over, the most profitable play will be the under, especially with things as close as they are. The margins for Miami (OH) to get to seven wins are very slim, and while they go bowling again, it is with a 6-6 record.
Final Miami (OH) Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 6.5 (+138)
