The Michigan State Spartans are coming off a terrible 5-7 season after a 2021 season that saw them beat Michigan and win the Peach Bowl. Can Mel Tucker get his squad to improve on their record from last year? Check out our college football odds series for our Michigan State over-under prediction and pick.

In 2021, Michigan State had one of its more surprising seasons as a football program going 11-2, 6-0 at home, beating rival Michigan, and winning the Peach Bowl. They did it all behind the arrival of Coach Mel Tucker from Colorado and their star one-and-done running back Kenneth Walker III from Wake Forest. The season gave Spartan fans a ton of hope and lofty expectations for their once-again budding football program.

The 2022 season saw a different story. With the departure of several key players including their star RB, Michigan State had a tougher road against a more difficult schedule. While they opened up the season at 2-0 with 87 combined points, the Spartans went on to lose the next four all by double digits, including and embarrassing 34-7 loss to Minnesota. It was tough-sledding the rest of the way as the Spartans only picked up three more wins against Illinois, Wisconsin, and Rutgers. The Spartans finished with a 3-6 Big Ten record.

Looking ahead to this season, Michigan State may be en route to another declining year. They lost their starting QB Payton Thorne to the transfer portal, along with WR Keon Coleman transferring to Florida State. While Mel Tucker's recruiting tactics worked wonders following the 2021 season, Michigan State has seen a drastic amount of decommitments and transfers ahead of this upcoming year. With their win total set accordingly, can the Spartans improve on last year and become relevant again in the Big Ten?

Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: Over/Under Win Total Odds

Over 5.5 wins: +118

Under 5.5 wins: -144

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Why Michigan State Can Win 5.5 Games 

With the departure of their starting QB, the Spartans will see a quarterback battle between junior Noah Kim and freshman Katin Houser. Both redshirted, the two quarterbacks have a ton of physical gifts and look to be prototypical builds for the kind of offense Mel Tucker wants to run. Noah Kim saw a glimpse of action last season and performed well in the situations he saw. If he's the starter, he'll have to work with a new receiving core given the departures of Keon Coleman and Jayden Reed. Tre Mosely and Maliq Carr will be returning, however, giving the Spartans two upperclassmen to distribute the ball to.

Looking at their schedule, the Spartans can realistically win their first two games against Central Michigan and Richmond, barring any undisciplined hiccups from Mel Tucker's squad. They also have a solid chance to beat Maryland at home this year, a team they've typically handled in the past. If they can beat Rutgers in the middle of their season and take out Nebraska at home in November, the Spartans could see themselves match last year's win total win a few games left. From there, the Spartans will face Ohio State, Indiana, and Penn State.

By the final quarter of the season, it'll be crucial to see how the Spartans stay healthy and bounce back from tough losses. They'll be expected to beat rival Indiana and could have a glimmer of hope against Penn State in their season finale at home. While the Spartans have one of the tougher schedules in the nation, winning one of their final three games could be what they need to improve on last years total, even if it is by just one game.

Why Michigan State Can Not Win 5.5 Games

Players are leaving Mel Tucker's hard-nosed coaching regime at alarming rates and it's a frightening sight to see for Spartan fans given the massive $95 million contract he received from the school. Clearly, players see an impending disarray from the Spartans in the coming season and it's tough to say how motivated the football team is behind their new coach. They're going to be lacking a ton of weapons on offense, but their defense may be taking the more significant hit. They won't be able to rely on the offense to score points in bunches, so focusing on the defensive side will be a key for Mel Tucker this year.

The Spartans have the second-toughest schedule in terms of strength in the nation, with their opponent's amassing a 62.7% win percentage. Nothing will come easy for them this year and they'll be seeing an even steeper level of competition this time around. Given the recent history of the program, it would be surprising to see the Spartans win more than five games this season as their roster is visibly less talented than last year.

MSU alumni and business mogul Matt Ishbia has been a huge donor to the athletics department and had a large in Michigan State's NIL sponsorship money. However, with his recent acquisition of the Phoenix Suns, Ishbia was forced to pull his money out of all MSU NIL deals, leaving a huge hole in the opportunity for Michigan State athletes to profit off their careers. In the coming years, this could prove to be a huge blow for recruiting and it's clearly taking its toll before this season begins. It'll take some seriously inspired efforts from the Spartans to win more than five games this season.

Final Michigan State Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick

With the second-strongest schedule in the nation and a plethora of roster changes, it's no surprised that the odds indicate MSU will not surpass their five-win total from last year. This entire season will hinge on whether Mel Tucker can inspire his guys to play for more than a win, but for school pride.

However, if we see the same tough-nosed coaching without any real results, don't expect the Spartans to play with much fervor in those close Big Ten games. Everything in my being wants to take the over here, but it may just be too unrealistic with all the bad luck they've had this offseason. Let's take the under to the disappointment of Spartan fans everywhere as they look ahead to a much brighter basketball season ahead.

Final Michigan State Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: UNDER 5.5 Wins (-144)