The Missouri Tigers will take on the Army Black Knights in the Armed Forces Bowl on Wednesday. It's time to continue our college football odds series and make a Missouri-Army prediction and pick.
One of these teams had a pretty exciting season, and it wasn't Missouri. The Tigers were perfectly mediocre, ending with a 6-6 record. They beat everyone they were supposed to beat and lost to everyone better than them, making them one of the most predictable teams in the nation.
The opposite can be said about Army. The Black Knights kept things close with the likes of the Wisconsin Badgers and Wake Forest Demon Deacons, but lost to the Ball State Cardinals early in the year. Despite their inconsistency, Army managed to earn a solid 8-4 record and a bowl appearance against an SEC opponent.
Here are the odds for the Missouri-Army game, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Missouri-Army Odds
Missouri Tigers: +6.5 (-115)
Army Black Knights: -6.5 (-105)
Over: 54.5 (-115)
Under: 54.5 (-105)
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Why Missouri Could Cover the Spread
The Tigers aren't a great offensive team, but they're still the best offense that Army has faced since the Black Knights took on Wake Forest in late October. Army allowed 70 points in that game, mostly because they couldn't stop the passing attack. Missouri has been solid in the passing game, earning nearly 215 passing yards per game and a 64% completion percentage. Army allowed a whopping 8.7 yards per pass during the regular season to go along with 215 passing yards per game, so the Tigers should be able to move the ball through the air in this one.
While the Black Knights earned themselves a solid record throughout the season, their record against the spread isn't nearly as successful. Army is 6-6 ATS, but that record gets significantly worse when we look at this matchup. Army has entered seven games as the favorite, but they only covered in two of those contests. It's certainly possible the bookmakers are giving the Knights too much credit in this matchup that is a huge step up in competition.
Why Army Could Cover the Spread
Army is obviously one of the most run-heavy teams in the nation, and that should work out well for them in this game. Missouri has been one of the worst defensive teams in all of college football, especially against the run. The Tigers allow 223 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry to opposing ball carriers, two of the worst numbers in the nation. The Knights should tear through this awful defense all game long and dominate time of possession.
Missouri's offense relied on a balanced attack to produce results, but that won't be an option here. Army has been dominant when it comes to stopping opposing ground games, and that trend should continue. The Knights are only giving up 118 rushing yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry, two numbers that show just how good this run defense has been. Missouri will be forced to pass in this one, and the Knights should be able to exploit that to put together a good defensive showing.
Final Missouri-Army Prediction & Pick
This is a pretty easy pick. Missouri hasn't done anything all season long to show that they can hang with a team like Army. Lock in the Knights with confidence here.
Final Missouri-Army Pick: Army Black Knights: -6.5 (-105)
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