It was a loss in the MAC Title game for Tim Albin and Ohio Football last year. This year they hope to get back to the game and win it. It is time to continue our college football odds series with an Ohio football over/under win total prediction and pick.
In 2022, Ohio was expected to take a step back. The media picked them fourth in their division, while the coaches selected them for a fifth-place finish in the division. Coach Albin and the Bobcats set out to prove them wrong. It started with a non-conference record of 2-2, as Ohio defeated Florida Atlantic before losing at Penn State and Iowa State. They then finished the non-conference start of their schedule with a win over Fordham. After losing to Kent State in overtime, the Bobcats took off. It was seven straight wins to end their regular season. In that time, they scored 24 points or more in all of them, while scoring over 30 in six of them. The defense did its part too, allowing 24 or fewer points in six of the final seven games.
The offense returns some studs. First is MAC offensive player of the year, quarterback, Kurtis Rourke. Then, they bring back the Freshman of the year running back Sieh Bangura. Finally, they bring back first-team All-MAC wide receiver Sam Wiglusz. Ohio brings back the 19th most production on offense according to Bill Connelly, losing just one key offensive lineman. The problem will be replacing so much on defense. They are last in the nation in returning production on defense, so it will be up to Kurtis Rourke and the offense to carry the way.
Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Ohio Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 7.5 wins: -122
Under 7.5 wins: +100
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Why Ohio Can Win 7.5 Games
MACation starts in week zero this year as Ohio travels to San Diego State. It should also be an early win for the Bobcats. The issue for Ohio last year was pass defense, and they will not have to worry about that with the Aztecs. Rourke will be too much for their defense, and the campaign starts 1-0. Ohio's home opener is against LIU, which will be another win, before heading to Boca Raton to face FAU. Tom Herman takes over an Owls program that has been up and down the last couple of years. The FAU offense looked solid in the spring game, but the defense had some holes. The holes were in the secondary, and Ohio will get another win.
Iowa State is the final non-conference game, and while this was not a great team last year, most of their losses were close. The Bobcats will lose this game and will need to win five in conference play to get over the win total. There are more than five winnable games for the Bobcats. First is Bowling Green. Connor Bazelak struggles under pressure, and this is something that should improve for Ohio this year. While the Bowling Green defense should slow down Ohio, it will not be enough. Kent State is next, and they lost just about everyone after coach Sean Lewis left. This will be another win for the Bobcats. After that, Ohio will be favorites again in the next two games. Northern Illinois will not have the offense to keep up, while Western Michigan will not be able to slow down Rourke.
With four conference wins behind them, they only need one more. Central Michigan and Akron the last two weeks of the season will both provide that. Central Michigan is fairly average this year in just about every position. There is nothing overly exciting about them or overly bad. Akron has done nothing to get better on defense, and it was a defense that gave up 55 to the Bobcats last year.
Why Ohio Can Not Win 7.5 Games
For Ohio to miss this win total it starts with a loss in the opening game of the regular season. The Aztecs have always found a way to replace quality defenders, and this year may be no different. If they have the quality replacements, they can slow down this Bobcats' offense and pull off the win. Then there is FAU. FAU brings in a new quarterback and has a stellar running back who can get outside. If the defensive line has to try to contend with both, it could be too much for the Bobcats, who then start just 1-3.
That would mean two losses in the conference would knock them below 7.5. There are more than two losable games though. The first is Bowling Green. If the offensive line from Bowling Green has improved, and there is no pressure on Connor Bazelak, he will torch this secondary. It could end up in a shootout then, and Bowlin Green has the weapons to come out on top. Miami (OH) would be next on the list. Brett Gabbert is a quality starting QB and can keep up with this Ohio offense. With questions on the defense of Ohio, if Rourke makes a mistake, it may be one too many.
Next is trying to contain Cole Snyder. Snyder spent three years at Rutgers before going to Buffalo last year, where he threw for 3,000 yards and 22 touchdowns. The weakest part of the Ohio secondary will be in the middle of the field, and that is where Snyder does a great job. Buffalo can easily get a win here.
Final Ohio Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
With Kurtis Rourke at quarterback, the sky is the limit for this team. They have some issues on defense, but they can be covered up with a lot of points from a quality offense. They will also improve throughout the year as they grab more experience. The schedule lays out nicely for them, and they should be able to get six wins in conference play. That means they only need two more wins, which they will get from San Diego State and LIU. It is an 8-4 season for the Bobcats as they hit the over.
Final Ohio Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 7.5 (-122)
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