The Stanford Cardinal take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Check out our college football odds series for our Stanford Notre Dame prediction and pick.
Stanford was about to get its first Pac-12 win of the season late last Saturday night on Oct. 8. Near the end of a very long game against Oregon State — past 11:20 p.m. on the West Coast and past 2:20 a.m. in the East — Stanford had a five-point lead with a struggling Oregon State offense near midfield in the final minute of play. Oregon State has had a terrible time throwing the ball this season. The Beavers threw four interceptions and scored just 14 points in a painful loss to USC. They threw more interceptions and scored only 16 points against Utah. Stanford took advantage of OSU's offensive limitations to build that late five-point lead, 27-22. The Cardinal just needed to avoid the deep ball against the Beavers.
They did … in a sense.
They allowed a pass completion of under 25 yards, and nothing more, on Oregon State's final drive.
The problem was that the completion of under 25 yards was not followed by any tackling from the Stanford defense. Two members of the secondary both took the wrong angle to the ball. Oregon State was able to cover half the field in one stunning touchdown and win the game in the closing seconds. The play was a lot like the Minneapolis Miracle, in which the Minnesota Vikings took advantage of clumsy pursuit from the New Orleans Saints to score a last-second touchdown in the 2017 NFC playoffs.
So, Stanford missed its big chance to win a Pac-12 game. The Cardinal are one of the worst teams in the Pac-12, and they have to find a way to reset their season.
Notre Dame is not imposing or overwhelming right now, but the Fighting Irish are winning games rather than losing, so that's a start. Notre Dame held off BYU 28-20 in Las Vegas last weekend. The Irish had 216 more yards than BYU, 22 more minutes in time of possession, and 11 more first downs. The Irish were 11 of 16 on third downs, while BYU was only 3 of 9. One would think that such statistical dominance would lead to more than an eight-point win, but this is part of Notre Dame's problem: letting inferior opponents hang around far too long, far too consistently.
It was encouraging to see quarterback Drew Pyne complete 22 of 28 passes, but he did throw an interception which prevented Notre Dame from winning more comfortably. The Irish need to build confidence and a sense of toughness for upcoming big games against Clemson and USC. Beating Stanford by a large margin might begin to develop the new mindset the Irish need in order to ramp up their level of energy for the second half of the season and the major tests which lie in front of them.
Here are the Stanford-Notre Dame NCAA Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Stanford-Notre Dame Odds
Stanford Cardinal: +16.5 (-110)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: -16.5 (-110)
Over: 54.5 (-110)
Under: 54.5 (-110)
Why Stanford Could Cover the Spread
The Cardinal have been a disappointment this season, but they looked better against Oregon State. Notre Dame beat Cal by only seven points and BYU by only eight. The Irish have shown a clear tendency to let inferior teams linger and gain a chance to tie or take the lead in fourth quarters. That pattern suggests that Stanford will cover the spread.
Why Notre Dame Could Cover the Spread
The Irish aren't dramatically better than they were at the start of the year, but they are better. Their improvement has been slow and incremental. Stanford, though, might be a bad-enough team that Notre Dame could make a bigger leap and achieve more substantial progress in this game.
Final Stanford-Notre Dame Prediction & Pick
Stanford remains a well-below-average team. Notre Dame should be able to control the line of scrimmage and do whatever it wants. The Notre Dame offense is better and will not struggle the way it did in September. Take Notre Dame.
Final Stanford-Notre Dame Prediction & Pick: Notre Dame -16.5
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