It was seven regular-season wins, capped off with a Texas Bowl win for the Texas Tech Red Raiders last year. It is time to continue our college football odds series with a Texas Tech football over/under win total prediction and pick.
Texas Tech opened had a pre-season win total number of 5.5 in 2022. They opened the season with a win over Murray State and then upset Houston in a double-overtime thriller. It was a loss to NC State on the road before their second upset of the year, this time in over-time over Texas. It was then back-to-back losses as underdogs to Kansas State and Oklahoma State. Both of those games were on the road, but they bounced back with a win over West Virginia. The Red Raiders lost the next two again, including a loss at TCU. That's when Texas Tech when on a run. With wins over Kansas and Iowa State, Texas Tech was bowl eligible and hit the over on their win total. Then it was overtime once again, as Texas Tech as the Red Raiders upset Oklahoma in their final game of the season.
Texas Tech brings back 14 starters for Joey McGuire's squad, including their quarterback Tyler Shough. Shough was solid last year, throwing for 1,304 yards and seven touchdowns. After leading his team to a victory over Murray State, Shough was injured against Baylor. He would return for the TCU game and struggle. After that though, he was great, leading the Red Raiders to four straight wins.
While the Red Raiders lost Tyree Wilson, they still bring back two stud defensive linemen. Jaylon Hutchings and Tony Bradford are back for the Red Raiders and lead a quality defensive line for Texas Tech. Still, they lost nearly half of their production on defense, and it will impact Texas Tech's odds to his the over on their win total.
Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Texas Tech Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 7.5 wins: +118
Under 7.5 wins: -144
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Why Texas Tech Can Win 7.5 Games
Texas Tech dodges both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in conference plays this year, which will help them. To get to the 7.5-game win total, Texas Tech has to use their returning offense, which is solid, to capitalize on some suspect defenses they will face. They must also get their defensive line to get good pressure on some of the quality quarterbacks they will be facing. In the non-conference schedule, Texas Tech faces Wyoming on the road, while home dates with Oregon and Tarleton State. The Red Raiders should be able to handle both Wyoming and Tarleton states while taking a loss to Oregon. This means they must win five games in the conference schedule to get there.
West Virginia opens the conference schedule and the Red Raiders will be heavy favorites. Houston is next, and they are 119th in returning production on the defense. Texas Tech will take advantage of that to get to two wins. Baylor destroyed Texas Tech last year but sits 100th in returning production. Baylor could easily have a bad year. Texas Tech needs to win this game to ensure an over with a little bit more breathing room. After that date with Kansas State and BYU before a bye. Texas Tech will get a win in one of their two games, sitting them with at least three conference wins and potentially four.
After the bye, TCU is up next. They are 118th in returning production, losing Max Duggan, three offensive linemen, and the top three receivers. Texas Tech will take advantage of that, and either this game or Baylor will be a win. Coming down the stretch are away dates with Kansas and Texas, with a home game with UCF in the middle. They will be favored against UFC, but to hit the over, they must beat Kansas or Texas on the road. With the returning defensive line, they can take out Kansas and hit eight wins.
Why Texas Tech Can Not Win 7.5 Games
Texas Tech lost a lot of production on defense while having a suspect offensive line. Five losses could be easy to find for Texas Tech. First, they will lose to Oregon. This is an early season match-up with the Ducks and Bo Nix will be able to have a great day against this defense trying to find themselves. The next loss on the schedule will come from Kansas State. Will Howard is continuing to improve, and they bring back their entire offensive line. Yes, they lost Deuce Vaughn, but the team will continue to improve on offense, which will best this Texas Tech defense.
After that is TCU. They are bringing back eight starters on defense, including three in the defensive backfield. They still have a solid defensive line, and against a suspect offensive line for Texas Tech, they will have a field day. Even more, Shough has not shown the ability to avoid pressure or avoid injury. This could be a game in which Shough gets hit a lot, and if he cannot stay healthy, future games that should win will be in doubt.
Kansas was one of the worst on defense last year, but they have shown some huge improvements already in spring ball. They do not need to improve much. This Kansas team is solid, and if Jalon Daniels is back, and hopefully healthy for the full year, Kansas can make a move into the Big 12. Kansas brings back ten starters on offense and will test this Texas Tech defense. Finally, they end the season against Texas, who will be favored to win the conference. They will be the best team in the conference this year and end their season with a win.
Final Texas Tech Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
The win total for Texas Tech comes down to just s few things. First, they cannot lose any games in which they will be heavy favorites, such as West Virginia. Second, they need to get a win against Kansas State or Kansas. They do not need to sweep them but have to come away with one win there. They also need to win against Baylor or TCU. If they can get two wins in those four games, they should have enough to hit the over. Texas Tech takes care of Baylor and Kansas this year, hitting eight wins on the year.
Final Texas Tech Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Texas Tech Over 7.5 Wins (+118)