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The USC Trojans take on the Oregon State Beavers. Check out our college football odds series for our USC Oregon State prediction and pick.
This is a huge game for both schools. USC and Oregon State are both unbeaten. The winner of this game gets a big step on the competition in the Pac-12. Remember that the Pac-12 no longer has divisions, at least not in terms of deciding the two teams which play in the Pac-12 Championship Game at the end of the season. This is a pure race to be in the top two of the conference standings. The top two teams will play for the conference crown in Las Vegas in December. The loser of this game, realistically, has to be unbeaten the rest of the way in the Pac-12. The teams in the conference title game will likely be 8-1 in the nine-game conference schedule. A team which is 7-2 probably won't get in.
The game also matters because both teams are fighting for a New Year's Six bowl bid and a 10-win season. Winning this game heightens the odds of reaching those kinds of goals.
It's Lincoln Riley's first really big road game at USC. The Week 2 win over Stanford was relatively easy. This game figures to be a lot harder. Oregon State has beaten Pete Carroll-coached USC teams in 2006 and 2008 when the Trojans had a chance to win the national championship. Those USC teams were better than this 2022 USC team. Oregon State loves to pull the ambush against the Men of Troy.
The big concern for Oregon State in this game is that tight end Luke Musgrave and running back Trey Lowe are both out. Those are two important offensive weapons for the Beavers, who will likely need to score as much as possible against USC's high-octane offense. The other big worry for OSU is that its pass rush has generated just three sacks in three games this season. OSU will likely need more than one sack against USC quarterback Caleb Williams.
The big concern for USC is the left tackle spot. Courtland Ford and Bobby Haskins are both expected to play, but they have both absorbed injuries in recent games. If they are ineffective, that would put a real dent into USC's plans. The Trojans are also thin at rush end, where Romello Height, a transfer from Auburn, just had shoulder surgery and is likely out for the rest of the season.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the USC-Oregon State College Football odds.
College Football Odds: USC-Oregon State Odds
USC Trojans: -5.5 (-114)
Oregon State Beavers: +5.5 (-106)
Over: 70.5 (-110)
Under: 70.5 (-110)
Why USC Could Cover the Spread
The Trojans have a great offense, and Oregon State does not have a great pass rush. If USC and Caleb Williams can operate fluidly on offense without much pressure from the Oregon State front seven, they should be able to score a very high number of points and play the game the way they want to. USC's defense is a concern for the Trojans, but as long as they don't get completely dominated, they should be fine. OSU not having Luke Musgrave or Trey Lowe really hurts the Beavers.
Why Oregon State Could Cover the Spread
Oregon State has a very good offensive line, and USC has a bad defensive line. This is the matchup where OSU can dominate and control the game. Oregon State doesn't have to score a ton of points if it can control the ball for 38 to 40 minutes and keep Caleb Williams off the field. This is Oregon State's path to victory, and there's a very reasonable chance it could in fact unfold.
Final USC-Oregon State Prediction & Pick
Oregon State's offensive line will control how this game is played. Maybe USC wins outright, maybe not, but Oregon State is going to be right there at the end with a chance to win.
Final USC-Oregon State Prediction & Pick: Oregon State +5.5
