The Washington Huskies take on the California Golden Bears. Check out our college football odds series for our Washington California prediction and pick.
The Washington Huskies are a great team this year … when playing at home in Seattle. Washington is 5-0 and has scored at least 39 points in all five of those games. Quarterback Michael Penix has looked like a Heisman Trophy candidate when playing in Husky Stadium. Washington crushed Michigan State and Stanford and ran up the numbers against Arizona, scoring 49 versus the Wildcats.
On the road, however, Washington looks like a bad team. The Huskies are 0-2 away from Montlake. They allowed 40 or more points in those two road losses. The offense wasn't terrible. UW scored over 30 points in each of those two road games, but the defense is a sieve. The Huskies have a young secondary which is extremely vulnerable in downfield pass coverage. The defense was so bad that Washington allowed 45 points to Arizona State a few weeks ago on a day when the Sun Devils had to play a backup quarterback, Trenton Bourguet, due to a concussion suffered by first-stringer Emory Jones. Getting roasted by a backup quarterback was a rock-bottom moment for Washington. Then the Huskies gave up 39 more points to Arizona the next week. It's hard to call that an improvement, but at least it was six fewer points than Arizona State.
The problem, of course, is that Washington does now have to play another road game. Berkeley is not an especially intimidating road environment, but the simple fact that Berkeley is not Seattle could mean a much tougher game for Washington than a lot of people might first think.
California is not a particularly good team. Moreover, the Golden Bears are coming off a humiliating overtime loss to Colorado. That was the first win for Colorado this season. The loss could make Cal dangerous and motivated this week, but let's be honest: Losing to Colorado should never happen to a half-decent team. Cal looked like a half-decent team when it took Notre Dame to the final play in South Bend — in a game which was always close — and then scored 49 against Arizona at home, just as Washington did. Cal seems to have regressed as a team, and it's hard to understand how this team lost the plot against Colorado. Coach Justin Wilcox (who used to coach on Washington's staff a decade ago) has a lot to figure out.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Washington-California College Football odds.
College Football Odds: Washington-California Odds
Washington Huskies: -7.5 (-106)
California Golden Bears: +7.5 (-114)
Over: 54.5 (-110)
Under: 54.5 (-110)
Why Washington Could Cover the Spread
The Huskies are playing a Cal team which could not move the ball consistently or score a lot of points against Colorado. If an offense has those kinds of limitations, it's precisely the team which gives Washington a great matchup. The Huskies have been scoring in bunches against every opponent they have played (with the partial exception of UCLA, which limited UW to 16 points in the first three quarters on Sept. 30). If Cal can't score, Washington will easily cover the spread.
Why California Could Cover the Spread
Washington playing away from Seattle is a bad team. Washington has to prove it can play a good Pac-12 road game. Also, Cal will be hugely motivated after its embarrassing loss to Colorado. Keep in mind that Cal did score 49 against Arizona at home a few weeks ago. This offense isn't a consistent offense, but it has shown that when everything is working well, it can perform at a high level.
Final Washington-California Prediction & Pick
Washington has not earned the benefit of the doubt as a road team. Cal should be able to keep this game close and cover.
Final Washington-California Prediction & Pick: California +7.5
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