Daniil Medvedev takes on Carlos Alcaraz in the 2024 Wimbledon gentlemen's singles semifinals. Our Wimbledon odds series has our Medvedev Alcaraz prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Medvedev Alcaraz.
This is a rematch of the 2023 Wimbledon semifinals. Alcaraz won that match convincingly, and then he beat Novak Djokovic in the final. Djokovic could very easily be the opponent for the winner of this match in Sunday's 2024 championship clash. Neither Alcaraz nor Medvedev can afford to look ahead to Sunday. To be honest, neither man is likely to. One of the notable aspects of this semifinal is that the two men have had two days off to prepare for the match. They played their quarterfinals on Tuesday and did not have to play on either Wednesday or Thursday. It used to be that at Wimbledon, all men's quarterfinals were played on Wednesday of Week 2, giving all four semifinalists an equal amount of rest heading into the semifinals on Friday. Now that the schedule has been adjusted, two quarterfinal matches are on Tuesday and two more are on Wednesday. Alcaraz and Medvedev were the Tuesday quarterfinal winners. Lorenzo Musetti and Novak Djokovic, the opponents in Friday's other semifinal, played their quarterfinals on Wednesday. With Alcaraz and Medvedev getting a lot of rest before this duel, one should expect them to go all-out in this semifinal. Worrying about having enough energy in the tank for Sunday against Djokovic is a secondary concern right now.
Here are the Daniil Medvedev-Carlos Alcaraz Wimbledon odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Wimbledon Odds: Daniil Medvedev-Carlos Alcaraz Odds
Game spread
Medvedev +4.5: -108
Alcaraz -4.5: -126
Money line
Medvedev: +270
Alcaraz: -345
To win first set
Medvedev: +164
Alcaraz: -205
Total Games In Match
Over 39.5: -112
Under 39.5: -118
Medvedev over 18.5 games: -112
Medvedev under 18.5 games: -118
Alcaraz over 21.5 games: -108
Alcaraz under 21.5 games: -124
How To Watch Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz
TV: ESPN
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 8:35 a.m. ET / 5:35 a.m. PT
*Watch Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz LIVE on fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Daniil Medvedev Could Cover The Spread
The spread of 4.5 games gives Medvedev some margin for error. Medvedev has a good chance to cover the spread for the simple reason that Alcaraz has not been relentlessly consistent. In all five of Alcaraz's matches at Wimbledon in 2024, he has struggled in at least one set if not two. Alcaraz lost the first set to Tommy Paul on Tuesday in the quarterfinals. He has lost at least one set in each of his last three matches. If Alcaraz does lose one set in this match, it's unlikely he can cover the spread. Medvedev's odds of covering would greatly increase; Medvedev would fail to cover in a four-set match only if he loses one set 6-1 or two sets by 6-3 or greater margins. If the match does go four sets, and Alcaraz fails to win a single set by a 6-2 or better margin, he is highly unlikely to win. A 4-6, 6-3, 6-4, 7-6 win for Alcaraz would still be a covered spread for Medvedev.
Why Carlos Alcaraz Could Cover The Spread
Medvedev is a good player, but Medvedev has been extremely lucky at this Wimbledon tournament. Grigor Dimitrov got injured versus Medvedev in the fourth round. Jannik Sinner fell ill for at least one set in Medvedev's five-set win in the quarterfinals. Medvedev has needed his opponents to go through physical trials and difficulties to win and advance. Assumng Alcaraz is physically fit and endures no adverse health situations, he should trounce Medvedev.
Final Daniil Medvedev-Carlos Alcaraz Prediction & Pick
This match is not easy to call. Alcaraz is clearly a better player than Medvedev, but Alcaraz has not been playing well. Our recommendation is to pass on this one, though we are leaning to Medvedev relative to the spread.
Final Daniil Medvedev-Carlos Alcaraz Prediction & Pick: Medvedev +4.5 games
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