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There's no two ways about it: the Denver Broncos are on a roll.
Since succumbing to a slow start to the 2024 season, scoring as many points in a pair of losses combined as they gave up to the Seattle Seahawks in Week 1 alone, the Broncos have slowly but surely figured out the Sean Payton-Bo Nix pairing.
No, Nix isn't the next Drew Brees, at least not yet, but he does have plenty of ways he can attack opposing defenses, and when Payton took a look at his old Oregon playbook and melded the two styles together, the results have been impressive, as evidenced by their last two wins, which have come by a combined score of 67-25 against the Falcons and Raiders.
With one more game until the bye, fans have to be feeling pretty good about where Denver is sitting at the moment, especially considering they are welcoming another team with a losing record to town, but in Week 13, on Monday Night Football, no less, the challenge may be a tad more than some may be hoping for on the way to a mid-December break. Why? Well, because they're facing off against a Browns team that has become a bit of a sleeping giant ever since Kevin Stefanski handed over the keys to Jameis Winston in Week 7.
Will the Browns make the playoffs as currently configured? No, probably not, as they have just three wins with six games left to play and still have games against the Steelers, Chiefs, Bengals, and Ravens on the schedule, but could they still steal a win against a team that overlooks them? Why yes, yes they could, as they just did it last week in Cleveland against ex-Broncos quarterback Russel Wilson and company in Week 12 and against the Ravens in Week 8, too.
1. Jameis Winston throws for 300+ yards, again
Since officially becoming the Browns' starting quarterback in Week 8, the Browns have become one of the better passing teams in the NFL, with Winston throwing the ball 160 times for 1,183 yards, six touchdowns, and four interceptions on the way to a 2-2 record.
Winston is averaging 295.75 yards per game as the Browns' starter, has unlocked Jerry Jeudy as Cleveland's new WR1 after trading their old WR1, Amari Cooper, to the white-hot Buffalo Bills, and has changed the feeling around the team for the better, as things were getting downright dire during the Deshaun Watson era.
Now granted, Winston's production hasn't exactly been indicative of winning in Cleveland. Winston threw for 334 yards in the Browns' win over the Ravens, threw for 395 yards in a loss to the New Orleans Saints, and had his least productive passing game in Week 12, throwing for just 219 yards in a win over the Steelers. Still, don't be surprised if the Browns throw the ball a ton in Week 13 and Winston ends up connecting on more than a few of his shots down the field.
Fortunately, the Broncos have one of the best passing defenses in the NFL, allowing just 2,398 yards through the air and 13 touchdowns through 12 weeks, which rank eighth and seventh league-wide, respectively. Even if Winston throws the ball 40 times in Week 13, the Broncos should be able to accept that and still keep the game within play, as the pride of Florida State hasn't unlocked the ground game in the same way he's elevated the passing game, which could end up being the Achilles' heel of the Browns' pursuit of another win over a playoff hopeful.
2. Marvin Mimms has his coming out party at RB
After being largely relegated to an offensive afterthought during the first two months of the 2024 NFL season, Marvin Mims burst onto the scene in November… only he's not doing so at the position that made him a second-round pick out of Oklahoma in 2023.
That's right, in a move that initially seemed odd but has rapidly become prophetic, Mimms has transitioned to running back like a fish to water, with his speed, elusiveness, and punt returnability bringing back memories of all-time Oregon scatbacks like Kenjon Barner, De'Anthony Thomas, and LaMichael James from Chip Kelly's tenure with the team.
Discussing the decision to give Mims a chance to run wild – literally – as a hybrid running back/wide receiver ahead of Week 13, Payton admitted it was a stroke of genius… one he wishes he had a few weeks earlier to really take advantage of the look.
“I think, as a coach, I'm mad at myself that we didn't begin looking at this earlier. He does such a good job running when you watch him return punts that that vision can carry over to certain runs in your offense and then certain things in the passing game,” Payton told reporters via SI.
“I think the challenge sometimes [is] we have to know: What do we expect to get when we put him in there? It's not him being in there. [It's] who he's in there with. If he's in there with three other receivers and a tight end, you might say it's '01' [because] there's no running backs in there. If he's in there with a fullback… So we do give a lot of thought to what we think we'll get defensibly based on the other people that are in there with him.”
In his three big usage games as a hybrid wide receiver/running back, Mims' ceiling has been 53 all-purpose yards from scrimmage on five touches. While it's hard to know what role he will play in Week 13, when you consider that Browns linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is on IR, there's a chance the collegiate Sooner could get some very nice looks.
3. Bo Nix adds another win to his impressive Broncos rookie season
Back in April, Nix was famously the sixth quarterback to come off of the board, following Caleb Williams at pick one, Jayden Daniels at pick two, Drake Maye at pick three, Michael Penix Jr. at pick eight, and JJ McCarthy at pick ten.
On paper, that's a pretty good group, with different levels of experience, playing styles, and ultimately ceilings depending on their situations, but who would have thought that Nix would actually rank first on that in terms of wins?
It's true, while Williams and Daniels have more passing yards on the season, Nix is sitting pretty with a 7-5 record, the same as the Commanders' QB, but with the potential to bring that to eight if he secures a win over the Browns.
Now granted, Nix was technically drafted last within the group, going 12th to a team that finished off the previous season 8-9, but come on, did anyone see the team having a winning percentage of 58 heading into Week 13, with the potential to bring that up to 61.5 by the end of MNF?
Well, soon, you'll probably have to believe it, as the Broncos are favored in this game for a reason and will likely finish out the game with lucky number eight on the board, matching their 2023 win total with four games left to play. Granted, the Broncos will still be sitting in third place in the AFC West if that happens, as the Chiefs are 11-1 and the Chargers are close behind at 8-4, but only six other teams in the AFC have a better record than the Broncos, which could lead to at worst the seventh seed in the playoffs, with the potential to climb as high a five depending on how December shakes out. Just like how George Paton planned it out, right?
