Four months ago, it was the Denver Nuggets that hoisted their first-ever Larry O'Brien Trophy by defeating the Miami Heat in five games of the NBA Finals. Roughly three weeks away from beginning their championship defense, can the Nuggets become the first franchise to go back-to-back since the Golden State Warriors in 2017-2018?
Almost instantaneously, the Denver Nuggets were among the NBA's best from the beginning of the 2022-2023 season and held their own en route to the top overall seed in the Western Conference. Even more fortunate was the fact that Denver finally received a clean bill of health for the first time since the 2020 bubble when the Nuggets stormed through the competition and reached the Conference Finals for the first time since 2009. With health on their side, the one-two punch of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray proved to be too much to counter for the rest of the league. Entering the new year, the Nuggets will once again be a team to be reckoned with as their championship window appears to be wide open for years to come.
Here are the Nuggets NBA Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Nuggets Over/Under Win Total Prediction
Over: 52.5 (-110)
Under: 52.5 (-110)
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Why the Nuggets Will Win 53 Games
Last season, the Denver Nuggets amassed exactly 53 wins en route to a championship, and with a target now on their backs from the rest of the league, it won't be easy to win at a high rate considering that each team will be giving it their all to knock off the defending champs.
Although Denver saw some pivotal names from last year's squad walk in free agency for more money including Bruce Brown, Jeff Green, and Thomas Bryant, the Nuggets should still boast plenty of talent within the starting lineup and even the bench. Of course, the usual playmakers will produce no matter the night health willing, but Denver is extremely ecstatic about the young role players on this team who are on track to play in plenty of critical moments.
Without a doubt, the loss of Bruce Brown especially is a tough pill to swallow, but the development of Christian Braun and Peyton Watson will be more than intriguing to keep an eye out for. Clearly, the Nuggets have high hopes for the both of them and if they can take that next step into becoming rock-solid bench contributors, then Denver has a chance to be even more explosive on both ends of the court.
Most importantly, the one name that needs to keep his game at an All-Star level will be Jamal Murray. An all-time playoff riser, Murray played out of this world during Denver's postseason run including 26.1 points per game on 40% shooting from three-point range. Through 65 games played in the regular season, Murray still averaged 20 points per contest, but elevating his game to his postseason self could be the difference between the Nuggets hitting the over on their season win total.
Why the Nuggets Won't Win 53 Games
If worst comes to worst, an absolute nightmarish scenario for this Nuggets squad will be if the injury bug rears its ugly head yet again. Prior to winning the whole enchilada, the Nuggets were about as banged up as you can get as it was solely up to Nikola Jokic to will his team to wins with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. missing significant time with injuries. Indeed, it was the talented sharpshooting guard and the lanky scoring forward that sat out a combined 155 games in what ended up being too much for the Nuggets to overcome. Even though it appears that Denver is as healthy as ever and their injury concerns are a thing of the past, it still is always a troublesome thought for Nuggets management and fans everywhere.
While not staying healthy will be one of the biggest reasons why the Nuggets won't win 53 games in the 2023-2024 season, lacking solid veteran depth on the bench could ultimately be a weak spot on this roster. While Denver could always make some moves prior to the Trade Deadline, a slow start to their championship defense will be due to the role players not gelling as expected. Despite this being a low concern, it could still end up being a possibility.
Final Nuggets Over/Under Win Total Prediction
Simply put, the Nuggets shouldn't be expected to miss a beat entering the new season as most of last year's squad will be returning to defend their title defense. Clearly, Nikola Jokic is the best player on the face of the Earth as the MVP favorite and finally has a proper supporting cast under his wing. With a tremendous head coach in Michael Malone running the show yet again, it is hard to imagine that Denver doesn't have what it takes to hit the over on their win total.
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