The Arizona Diamondbacks are in south Florida to take on the Miami Marlins Monday night. Below we will continue our MLB odds series as we hand out a Diamondbacks-Marlins prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
Diamondbacks-Marlins Projected Starters
Brandon Pfaadt vs. Undecided
Brandon Pfaadt (7-6) with a 3.98 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 144.2 innings pitched, 135K/29BB, .240 oBA
Last Start: vs. Colorado Rockies: Win, 7 innings, 8 hits, 4 runs, 0 walks, 11 strikeouts
2024 Road Splits: 13 starts, 4.24 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 76.1 innings pitched, 69K/18BB, .234 oBA
The Marlins have not named a starter yet
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks-Marlins Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks: -1.5 (-115)
Moneyline: -200
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-104)
Moneyline: +168
Over: 8 (-112)
Under: 8 (-108)
How to Watch Diamondbacks vs. Marlins
Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40 PM PT
TV: MLB TV, Bally Sports Florida
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Diamondbacks Will Cover The Spread/Win
Brandon Pfaadt is having a pretty good first full season in the MLB. It is definitely a step up from his rookie season. He has improved in a lot of his pitching metrics, but the most impressive part of his game is his walk rate. Pfaadt is in the 91st percentile in walk rate, so he really attacks the zone. Along with that, Pfaadt gets a good amount of hitters to chase off the plate. If Pfaadt can continue to attack the zone and get hitters to chase, the Diamondbacks will win this game.
Since the trade deadline, the Marlins are batting just .233 with an OPS under .700. In the 16 games since, the Marlins are striking out over 10 times per game, as well. The Marlins do not hit the ball hard, and they have the highest chase percentage in the MLB. Brandon Pfaadt should have no problem getting the Marlins to chase pitches, and inducing weak contact. With that, the Diamondbacks will be able to win this game.
Why The Marlins Will Cover The Spread/Win
Pfaadt is a good pitcher, and the Diamondbacks have won when he has started lately. However, Pfaadt has not made it easy for them this month. In his three August starts, Pfaadt has allowed 19 hits in 18.1 innings pitched, and he has a 4.42 ERA. Pfaadt is also significantly worse in night games. His ERA is more than two runs worse at night, and his oBA is almost 100 points worse. If the Marlins can take advantage of Pfaadt in an environment where he struggles, they will be able to win this game.
The Marlins have not named their starting pitcher, but whoever it is, they have to be at the top of their game. All season, the Marlins have not been able to keep hitters off balance, and keep them from making good contact. The Marlins did beat the Diamondbacks in the three-game series earlier this year. In that series, the Marlins allowed just four total runs. If Miami can have another series like that, they will be able to win this game.
Final Diamondbacks-Marlins Prediction & Pick
I am not going to overthink this game. The Diamondbacks are the better team, and they have the better pitcher on the mound. I think Brandon Pfaadt will go deep into this game, and shut down the Marlins. I will take the Diamondbacks to not only win this game, but cover the spread, as well.
Click here for more betting news and predictions
Final Diamondbacks-Marlins Prediction & Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5 (-115)
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