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The Los Angeles Dodgers will continue their three-game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday at Chase Field. It's a National League West showdown as we share our MLB odds series and make a Dodgers-Diamondbacks prediction and pick.
Dodgers-Diamondbacks Projected Starters
Gavin Stone vs. Merrill Kelly
Gavin Stone (11-5) with a 3.33 ERA
Last Start: Stone dominated in his last start, going seven innings, allowing one earned run, three hits, striking out seven, and walking two in a no-decision against the Tampa Bay Rays.
2024 Road Splits: Stone has been slightly worse on the road, going 7-4 with a 3.59 ERA over 11 starts away from Chavez Ravine.
Merrill Kelly (4-0) with a 3.98 ERA
Last Start: Kelly went six innings in his last outing, allowing four earned runs, seven hits, striking out five, and walking three in a win over the Boston Red Sox.
2024 Home Splits: Kelly is great at home, sporting a 2-0 record with a 2.28 ERA over four starts at Chase Field.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Dodgers-Diamondbacks Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (+115)
Moneyline: -132
Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-138)
Moneyline: +112
Over: 9 (-105)
Under: 9 (-115)
How to Watch Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
Time: 8:10 PM ET/5:10 PM PT
TV: SportsNet LA
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Dodgers Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Dodgers are clinging to a narrow lead in the NL West. Somehow, the D-Backs have managed to close the gap and came into the weekend trailing by just four games, while the San Diego Padres entered trailing by just five games. But this offense continues to produce, and they are determined to win the division again.
Shohei Ohtani joined the 40-40 club earlier this week and has been magical in his first season with the boys in blue. Remarkably, he leads the Dodgers in hits, home runs, and stolen bases. Ohtani continues to produce even while recovering from an injury that has prevented him from pitching. Significantly, his ability to still hit the baseball is second to none.
Mookie Betts remains one of the best players in the game and would be for the Dodgers if Ohtani wasn't around. He came into the weekend batting .301 with 13 home runs, 53 RBIs, and 59 runs over 88 games. Teoscar Hernandez has been the real unsung hero. Amazingly, he came into the weekend hitting .264 with 28 home runs, 87 RBIs, and 70 runs. Undoubtedly, he will finish with 30 home runs and 100 RBIs. Meanwhile, Freddie Freeman continues to produce, entering the weekend, batting .284 with 17 home runs, 73 RBIs, and 70 runs.
Stone has been solid this season. He hopes to keep the momentum as he attempts to keep the Dodgers in the division lead. When Kelly exits, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is the fourth-best in baseball. Surprisingly, they have managed to do this despite not having an established closer, as Evan Phillips, Daniel Hudson, and Alex Vesia have all garnered saves.
The Dodgers will cover the spread if they can strike at Kelly early and prevent him from getting into a groove. Then, they need a good outing from Stone.
Why The Diamondbacks Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Diamondbacks are holding onto the top wildcard spot in the NL and hope to make it back to the World Series. However, there is still an entire month to play, and the Diamondbacks need their hitters to continue producing.
Lourdes Gurriel has been consistent all season and leads the D-Backs in hits. Thus, expect him to be a focal part of this offense. Gurriel needs to do more because Ketel Marte has been out for weeks. Meanwhile, Christian Walker is still around and has the potential to clobber the baseball to all sides of the field. Josh Bell is the newest addition to the team and has been on the Diamondbacks for a few weeks. Now, he hopes to deliver. Corbin Carroll has had a sophomore slump and is not doing well this season. Regardless, he is still a threat at the plate and on the basepaths and can do some damage.
Kelly has struggled historically against the Dodgers, going 0-11 with a 5.49 ERA against them in the regular season. However, he finally beat them in the postseason last season and hopes to do it again. When Kelly exits, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is just 18th in baseball in team ERA.
The Diamondbacks will cover the spread if the offense can spring them to an early lead. Then, they need Kelly to avoid his past struggles against the Dodgers.
Final Dodgers-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
The Diamondbacks came into the weekend with a 5-4 record against the Dodgers this season, including 1-2 at home. Additionally, they are 6-3 against the run line against Los Angeles. The Dodgers are 68-66 against the run line, while the Diamondbacks are 69-65 against the run line. Also, the Dodgers are 30-34 against the run line on the road, while the Diamondbacks are 30-36 against the run line at home. It is incredibly difficult to ignore the bad marks that Kelly has had against the Dodgers. For that reason, we are rolling with the Dodgers to cover.
Final Dodgers-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (+115)
