The Florida State Seminoles and Duke Blue Devils will face off for the first time since 2022 in a crucial matchup for the ACC standings. Duke can keep pace with North Carolina for the ACC regular season title with a win, while Florida State is trying to get out of a fifth-place logjam. It is time to continue our men's college basketball odds series with a Duke-Florida State prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

Duke climbed to No.2 in the ACC thanks to a flurry of upsets. Virginia lost at home to Pittsburgh, and then North Carolina lost to Syracuse, paving the way for the Blue Devils to challenge for the regular season crown. Kyle Filipowski continues to lead Duke, averaging 17.4 points per game. Mark Mitchell is also emerging as a force, chipping in 23 points in Duke's win over Wake Forest on Tuesday.

Florida State's season is being buoyed by their woeful defense. They allowed Virginia Tech to score 44 second-half points in an 83-75 loss. The Seminoles have allowed an average of 88 points per game in their last three losses.

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: Duke-Florida State Odds

Duke: -5.5 (-102)

Moneyline: -210

Florida State: +5.5 (-120)

Moneyline: +172

Over: 150.5 (-110)

Under: 150.5 (-110)

How to Watch Duke vs. Florida State 

Time: 2 PM ET/11 AM PT

TV:

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Duke Will Cover The Spread/Win

Duke is beginning to round into form, riding a three-game winning streak and covering the spread in all three games. You must return to January 27th to find a Duke win that didn't result in a cover. Despite losing to North Carolina recently, the Blue Devils are in the thick of the ACC standings. They are 10-3 in the conference, sitting half a game back of North Carolina, who boasts an 11-3 record. Duke will be motivated to grab the win and keep pace with the Tar Heels. The Seminoles haven't had as much success in-conference, as they are tied with four other teams fifth with a 7-6 record.

Duke's offense should be able to dominate the Seminoles' defense. Duke ranks 42nd in the nation, scoring 80.5 points per game. They are highly efficient, ranking top-50 in field goal and three-point percentage. They can also make their free throws and excel at getting to the line over 20 times per game. This will be an issue for Florida State, as they are one of the most undisciplined teams in the country. The Seminoles rank near the top in free throws allowed per game. Florida State's defense is below average, allowing 74.7 points per game. Most teams improve that number at home, but the Seminoles stay the same.

Why Florida State Will Cover The Spread/Win

Duke has won seven of the last eight games over the Seminoles, but Florida State usually keeps it close. They've covered five of those games.

Final Duke-Florida State Prediction & Pick

Duke's offense is a poor matchup for the Seminoles. They are highly efficient and score over 80 points per game. Florida State is an undisciplined team that allows its opponents to get to the line at an alarming rate, which is a key to success for the Blue Devils. Duke likes to get physical down low and force their opponents to foul them. The Blue Devils should get plenty of opportunities to shoot free throws on Saturday afternoon.

The Seminoles don't have the same home-court advantage as other teams in the ACC. They are 7-6 at the Donald L. Tucker Center and have no statistical advantage in their home/road splits. Duke can envision catching their arch-rival North Carolina Tar Heels for first in the ACC and will be determined to stay within half a game on Saturday.

Click here for more betting news and predictions

Final Duke-Florida State Prediction & Pick: Duke -5.5 (-102)