East Carolina will look to build on the foundation they set last season. We are here to share our college football odds series by making an East Carolina over-under win total prediction and pick.

The East Carolina Pirates had a good season, as they went 8-5, including 4-4 in the AAC. Now, they must overcome the loss of many players to build on that. The Pirates started the season with a 21-20 loss to NC State. However, they bounced back with two wins in a row, as they defeated Old Dominion and Campbell. But they fell 23-20 in double overtime to Navy. Regardless, they answered back with a 48-28 win over South Florida. They fell 24-9 to Tulane in the following week.

The Pirates reeled off three straight wins as they knocked off Memphis, UCF, and BYU. Then, they lost two in a row, as they fell to Cincinnati and Houston. But they defeated Temple to set themselves up for a bowl game. Finally, they defeated Coastal Carolina 52-29 to take the Birmingham Bowl.

They did not see any players go to the NFL in the draft. However, they did lose four significant players who joined teams as undrafted free agents. Running back Keaton Mitchell signed with the Baltimore Ravens. Likewise, tight end Ryan Jones inked a contract with the New York Giants. Quarterback Holton Ahlers signed with the Seattle Seahawks. Lastly, wide receiver Isaiah Winstead secured a contract with the San Francisco 49ers.

Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: Over/Under Win Total Odds

Over 6.5 wins: +172

Under 6.5 wins: -215

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Why East Carolina Can Win 6.5 Games 

The Pirates lost many players from their roster. However, they still have the ability to make some noise and have a good season in 2023. It all starts with replicating what they did last season. Ultimately, the main reason for the success that East Carolina enjoyed had much to do with their ability to stay clean on the field. The Pirates were very good at avoiding mistakes. Moreover, they played efficiently and controlled the tempo of the game.

The ball control was excellent as the Pirates had the fewest giveaways. Ultimately, it helped spark a 5-2 run. Most would attribute this to Mike Houston and his ability to coach these players on the importance of holding onto the football. Moreover, he also coached this team to  stop making penalties. But the Pirates also are very good at converting third downs. Significantly, being able to do this helps them keep the ball and keep their defense fresh. It also is essential for them to have a balanced attack, which gives them more chances to score. Therefore, all these factors led to the Pirates winning eight games.

East Carolina will win seven games because they still have great coaching. Moreover, they have players that are coachable and can produce on the field.

Why East Carolina Can Not Win 6.5 Games

It is difficult to ignore the fact that they lost so many players. Somehow, the Pirates will have to replace their quarterback. Mason Garcia has a little experience. Thus, he can become an option. But can he fully replace quarterback Holton Ahlers?

The Pirates also lost many of their playmakers. First, Mitchell is gone. He ran for almost 1,500 yards and 14 touchdowns. Somehow, they must replace his amazing production. Is Marlon Gunn the right player to take over the backfield? Then, there is Rahjai Harris. He had five touchdowns in five games before he tore his ACL. Now, the Pirates will look to see if he has recovered from his injury. Georgia Southern transfer Gerald Green is another option.

But the defense was awful last year, and the Pirates did not establish a pass rush. Ultimately, defensive end Chad Stephens and edge pass rusher Jeremy Lewis must do more to solidify the defense. The Pirates also must contend with the loss of cornerback Malik Fleming, who went to Houston. Who will replace his production?

East Carolina will not win seven games because they lost too much talent to replicate the numbers they had last season. Moreover, good coaching can only go so far if you don't have the talent to execute it.

Final East Carolina Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick

It is not a matter of how whether they will decline, it is a question of how bad the decline will be. Therefore, expect some growing pains as the new players struggle to adjust. It will be a steep learning curve as the Pirates fail to replicate their success from 2022.

Final East Carolina Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 6.5 wins: -215