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The NBA season continues, and we have a tilt between the Houston Rockets and the Golden State Warriors on Sunday. It's time to continue our NBA odds series with a Rockets-Warriors prediction and pick.
Sunday’s matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets at Chase Center is set to be a thrilling contest between two playoff-bound teams. The Warriors (46-31) are riding a two-game winning streak and have dominated the season series, leading 3-1. Behind Stephen Curry’s scoring (24.1 points per game) and Draymond Green’s defensive versatility, Golden State ranks eighth in defensive rating and fourth in three-pointers made per game, making them dangerous at home. The Rockets (49-27), second in the Western Conference, have been red-hot, winning 13 of their last 15 games. Led by Jalen Green and Alperen Şengün, Houston boasts the league’s best rebounding unit and ranks fifth in defensive rating. This clash of styles will likely hinge on Houston’s ability to control the boards against Golden State’s perimeter shooting. Expect a competitive battle with playoff implications for both teams.
Here are the Rockets-Warriors NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Rockets-Warriors Odds
Houston Rockets: +4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +158
Golden State Warriors: -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -188
Over: 226 (-110)
Under: 226 (-110)
How To Watch Rockets vs. Suns
Time: 8:30 PM ET/5:30 PM PT
TV: NBA League Pass
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Why the Rockets Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Houston Rockets have a strong chance to win or cover the spread against the Golden State Warriors on Sunday, thanks to their elite rebounding and defensive prowess. The Rockets lead the NBA in offensive rebounding and rank fifth in defensive rating, giving them a significant edge in controlling possessions and limiting Golden State's transition opportunities. Alperen Şengün, averaging a double-double, anchors the paint, while Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks provide scoring and perimeter defense. Houston’s up-tempo style, which leads the league in field goal attempts per game (93.5), could wear down Golden State’s smaller lineups over four quarters.
While the Warriors are dangerous at home, their reliance on three-point shooting can be neutralized by Houston’s ability to dominate the glass and generate second-chance points. Additionally, Golden State has struggled against physical teams this season, particularly those that excel in rebounding. If Şengün and Jabari Smith Jr. can control the boards and force Stephen Curry into tough shots with aggressive perimeter defense, Houston can dictate the pace of the game. With momentum from clinching a playoff berth and their first 50-win season since 2018-19, expect the Rockets to compete fiercely and potentially pull off an upset or at least cover the spread in this high-stakes Western Conference showdown.
Why the Warriors Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Golden State Warriors are poised to win and cover the spread against the Houston Rockets on Sunday, leveraging their championship pedigree and home-court advantage. Stephen Curry, fresh off a dominant stretch including a 36-point performance against the Nuggets, remains the centerpiece of Golden State’s offense. The Warriors rank fourth in three-pointers made per game, and their ability to stretch the floor could exploit Houston’s perimeter defense, which has been inconsistent all season. Draymond Green’s defensive versatility and Jimmy Butler’s steady contributions since joining the team provide balance on both ends of the floor. Playing at Chase Center, where Golden State boasts a strong record, further solidifies their edge.
The Rockets, while second in the Western Conference, have struggled with perimeter shooting and turnovers throughout the season. Their reliance on Jalen Green and Alperen Şengün for offense has occasionally left them vulnerable against teams with elite spacing and disciplined defense like Golden State. Additionally, Houston’s crunch-time struggles—ranking 25th in pace during close games—could hurt them against a Warriors team that thrives under pressure. With Curry leading a high-powered attack and Golden State’s defense capable of limiting Houston’s strengths, expect the Warriors to control the tempo and secure a convincing victory that covers the spread.
Final Rockets-Warriors Prediction & Pick
The Golden State Warriors are expected to win and cover the spread against the Houston Rockets on Sunday at Chase Center. Behind Stephen Curry’s elite scoring and the team’s fourth-ranked three-point shooting, the Warriors have the offensive firepower to overwhelm Houston’s defense. Golden State’s home dominance and defensive versatility, led by Draymond Green, give them a clear edge in this matchup. While the Rockets excel in rebounding and have been strong defensively, their perimeter struggles and turnover issues could be exposed by Golden State’s disciplined play. Expect the Warriors to control the pace and secure a comfortable victory at home.
Final Rockets-Warriors Prediction & Pick: Golden State Warriors -4.5 (-110), Over 226 (-110)
