The Kansas City Royals are on the fence at the Major League Baseball trade deadline. On one hand, young stars like Jac Caglianone have given Kansas City faith. On the other, the Royals have plenty of players the could trade, like Seth Lugo and Lucas Erceg. If they make a move at the MLB trade deadline, Boston Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran could be their reward.
Because Bobby Witt Jr. is near the height of his power, prospects don't carry as much weight in trade for the Royals. Instead, Kansas City wants help in their outfield with controllable contracts. There are players available that fit the mold, creating the perfect storm for a Royals fire sale before the trade deadline hits. Having a plan before doing so is crucial.
According to ESPN's Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniels, Lugo is the second-best pitcher on the market. Conversely, Duran is the second-best outfielder that could find a new home this summer. While they sit closely together in ESPN's rankings, each player carries different value thanks to their contract situation. The uncertainty of Lugo's future makes his trade far more likely.
Cole Ragans' injuries have cost the Royals, and they are unlikely to contend this season. If they can swallow that pill now, they have time to make the most of their future. Sending Lugo away is the first step in that direction and could result in them contending in the American League for years to come. The decision is one of many the league is watching this week.
Here is a trade package that the Royals could offer the Royals for Duran. The deal sends out two expiring contract and nets them at least one year of Duran in their outfield.
Royals receive: OF Jarren Duran
Red Sox receive: SP Seth Lugo, RP Lucas Erceg
Why should the Royals trade for Duran?
Duran's production has taken a step back from his All-Star campaign in 2024. Despite that, he is still an elite outfielder when put into the right situation. He is a great example of just how fast things can change in MLB. He went from a key piece of the Red Sox's core alongside Rafael Devers to an afterthought. In a week, Boston could have moved on from both Devers and him.
The MLB trade deadline is often viewed as a uneasy time for players around the league. Trade rumors can rob a player of their confidence and lead to anxiety about their future. For players like Duran, however, the deadline has been less stressful. When compared to what the Red Sox have him doing, the Royals provide a greater chance to grow and return to his former glory.
In Duran's defense, the diminishment of his role is no fault of his own. Wilyer Abreu, Roman Anthony, and Cedanne Rafaela all burst onto the scene this season. Because of that, Red Sox manager Alex Cora faced a lineup issue. In a rare circumstance, he has more talented players than he has available roster spots. The Royals can bank on the outfielder rebounding on a new team.
The biggest thing contributing to the potential union of Duran and Kansas City is his contract. The former All-Star has one year left on his contract. However, he has a club option that can be exercised his winter. If they trade for him, the Royals have the freedom to hold on to him for an extra season before he enters free agency.
Duran is a great fit for a smaller market team that struggles to attract stars. Trading for him now gives them a year and a half to convince him to stay long-term.
Why should the Red Sox trade for Erceg and Lugo?
At first glance a deal that exchanges Lugo and Erceg for just one player seems like an overpay. However, their expiring contracts open up the Red Sox to a lot of risk this winter. If Boston falls short of expectations or fizzles out in the playoffs, both players could sign lucrative deals elsewhere. However, the Red Sox's recent success necessitates big moves at the MLB trade deadline.
Throughout the season, Garrett Crochet has been a dominant force for Boston. He and Lucas Giolito have formed a great one-two punch out of Alex Cora's bullpen. However, the depth behind them is worrying to say the least. Starting pitching is vital to postseason success in today's MLB. Having just two reliable starters in the fall is simply not enough to make a deep run.
Lugo's ERA and WHIP have him near the top of the league. While Erceg was the only one of the two to be named an All-Star, both pitchers were worth of recognition. Each of them play vital roles in the Royals' pitching strategy and could be a package deal at the MLB trade deadline. Adding both of them elevates Cora's pitching staff from average to excellent moving forward.
The Red Sox have had enough success to warrant their aggressiveness at the trade deadline. Sending Duran away would leave them wondering what could have been. However, Lugo and Erceg would help the team compete for a title right now. In a wide-open AL, adding one of the best pitchers on the market gives Boston a puncher's chance at bringing another title home.
