We're back with another betting prediction and pick for this action-packed UFC Vegas 89 Main Card as we turn our attention towards this next bout in the Middleweight (185) Division. Xtreme Couture's Edmen Shahbazyan will take on Ohio's AJ Dobson. Check out our UFC odds series for our Shahbazyan-Dobson prediction and pick.
Edmen Shahbazyan (12-4) will be making his tenth UFC appearance with a 5-4 record since 2018. After a strong start to his career following The Ultimate Fighter, he's had a rough go losing four of his last five bouts. Four of those have also ended by finish, so Shahbazyan is hoping he's on the right side this time around. He stands 6'2″ with a 75-inch reach.
AJ Dobson (7-2) comes in with a 1-2 UFC record since 2022. After notching a contract on DWCS, he lost his first two UFC bouts to formidable opponents in Jacob Malkoun and Armen Petrosyan. He bounced back with a unanimous decision victory in his last fight and will be looking for much of the same in this one as the underdog. Dobson stands 6'1″ with a 76-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC Vegas 89 Odds: Edmen Shahbazyan-AJ Dobson Odds
Edmen Shahbazyan: -210
AJ Dobson: +180
Over 2.5 rounds: +105
Under 2.5 rounds: -135
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Why Edmen Shahbazyan Will Win
Edmen Shahbazyan once looked like a dangerous prospect in the Middleweight Division, but he's since taken a step-back in his production and has fallen off a bit in terms of his place in the standings. Four of his last five fights have been bad losses and he's been finished in the majority of those bouts. After making numerous changes to his camp, he's looking for a signature win to break him out of this funk, and he might just get it as the sizable betting favorite against Dobson.
Edmen Shahbazyan fights behind a traditional boxing style and does his best work when he's technically throwing for inside the pocket. He's very good with throwing shots to the body and he makes good use of his short leg kicks as well. His biggest issue has been his defense and letting opponents overwhelm him with pressure. To have success here, Shahbazyan will have to stand his ground and get back to the boxing combinations that got him here in the first place.
Why AJ Dobson Will Win
AJ Dobson responded very well to two early losses in his UFC run and he looked dominant against a dangerous striker like Tefon Nchukwi. He was able to stay safe with his distance control and also did a great job of utilizing his kicking game. After being out-struck in his previous bouts, he did a great job of managing his striking output and matching Nchukwi shot for shot. If he can stay composed and fight a similar fight against Shahbazyan, he should get his hand raised as the winner.
The only knock of Dobson's win over Nchukwi could have been his lack of output. He fights with a high guard and he's very cautious about opening up his strikes, so it often results in a lack of significant output for much of the round. He lost his other fights for that same reason on the scorecards, so he'll want to make sure he's staying active here and mixing in level changes as well.
Final Edmen Shahbazyan-AJ Dobson Prediction & Pick
Both of these fighters will be looking for a signature win as they try to establish themselves in the division. Edmen Shahbazyan has fallen from where he once stood amongst the ranks and he'll be eager to get back to winning and place himself in those discussions once again. AJ Dobson just got his first taste at a UFC win and he'll be looking to build upon that momentum as the underdog here.
Edmen Shahbazyan can have success here if he gets back to his old boxing style and fights with a consistent output. AJ Dobson struggles to get going early so Shahbazyan could put some pressure on him and force him to defend takedowns early.
AJ Dobson, on the other hand, waited a bit too long to find the takedown against his last opponent and he won't want to waste any time here. He'll want to keep active with his kicks and find the takedowns along the fence if they present themselves.
All in all, we'll lean towards Edmen Shahbazyan to get this win. He's been down over the last few fights but he's got a great team in Xtreme Couture and they'll have a game plan ready for a fighter like AJ Dobson. For our prediction, let's roll with Edmen Shahbazyan to get back on track here with a win.
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Final Edmen Shahbazyan-AJ Dobson Prediction & Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan (-210)
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