Ranked 17th nationally, John Calipari and the Kentucky Wildcats gear up to take on Mark Few’s Gonzaga Bulldogs in this WCC-SEC matchup. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with a Gonzaga-Kentucky prediction and pick.
After dropping a home game to rival Saint Mary’s, Mark Few and his Zags bounced back with a 32-point drilling of Portland (303rd, KenPom). It has been a notably down year in Spokane for Zags fans. But that was to be expected when Eastern Washington transfer Steele Venters (Big Sky Player of the Year) went down with a season-ending injury. March would not feel right without Gonzaga, but we are inching closer to that reality with the Bulldogs winless in Quad 1 games (0-5).
Playing host is John Calipari and the Wildcats in Rupp Arena where they have dropped two straight for only the second time in the Calipari era. Key injuries to starters DJ Wagner and Tre Mitchell have resulted in a bumpy first half of SEC play for the Cats. Their status is still to be determined for Saturday’s matchup. In their absence, freshmen Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham have stepped up.
Can Gonzaga find their marquee win or will Kentucky return to protecting home court?
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Gonzaga-Kentucky Odds
Gonzaga: +4.5 (-118)
Moneyline: +150
Kentucky: -4.5 (-104)
Moneyline: -182
Over: 167.5 (-115)
Under: 167.5 (-105)
How to Watch Gonzaga vs. Kentucky
Time: 4:00 pm ET/1:00 pm PT
TV: CBS
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Gonzaga Will Cover The Spread/Win
First, it is no secret what the weakness of Kentucky is–the defense. Kentucky might have the fifth-best offensive efficiency, but their defense ranks 102nd nationally. The injuries to DJ Wagner and Tre Mitchell have forced Kentucky into a tough situation. Kentucky has given up 80 or more points in five of ten SEC games. Similar to Ryan Nembhard, Reed Sheppard has been playing nearly every minute with Wagner out. If Wagner is out, Kentucky will not have a depth advantage in the backcourt like most teams have over Gonzaga.
Like most Mark Few teams, Gonzaga defends without fouling. The Zags rank 23rd nationally in foul rate while the Kentucky offense ranks 297th in free throw rate. The phrase “it’s hard to win on the road” is true, but it holds more weight with the referees than anything else. Rupp Arena is factored into the line already, but if Gonzaga can comfortably win the free throw battle that gives them a path.
Lastly, John Calipari has said in recent weeks how his team has not had a great sense of chemistry with the constant injuries and variations of lineups. If there is one scheme you have to be locked in against, it is a Mark Few veteran-led team. If Kentucky continues to be hampered by the injury bug, the Zags could be in a position to take advantage. Pay attention to the news surrounding Kentucky’s DJ Wagner and Tre Mitchell.
Why Kentucky Will Cover The Spread/Win
Initially, Gonzaga’s record against quality competition has to be recognized. The Bulldogs are 0-5 in Quad 1 with their best true road win being against 217th San Diego who is 4-6 in the WCC. Their best win of the season is a five-point win at home against 70th San Francisco after Gonzaga trailed by six in the second half. Quite literally–Gonzaga has not beaten a quality opponent even once.
Importantly, Kentucky's struggles defensively come from the perimeter, not the interior. In terms of point distribution, Gonzaga gets 58.1% of their points from two-pointers which ranks 17th-most nationally. Additionally, they get 25.1% of their points from threes, which is 302nd nationally. In summary, Gonzaga feasts inside while not getting much of anything from the three.
Defensively, Kentucky allows 47.0% of opponent points to come from two (57th) and 34.1% to come from three (298th). Kentucky rotates eight players 6’8 or taller. The three seven-footers Ugonna Onyenso, Aaron Bradshaw, and Zvonimir Ivisic give Kentucky stout rim protection. Also, the forward depth of Adou Thiero, Justin Edwards, Tre Mitchell, and Jordan Burks has proven valuable in conference play. This is a perfect matchup against an offense like Gonzaga’s. Additionally, the Bulldogs struggle mightily with free throws shooting just 70.3% on the year ranking 244th nationally.
Earlier, I mentioned how Kentucky is coming off two straight home losses for only the second time under Calipari. The first was during the 2021 COVID-19 season without fans. Calipari has never lost three straight home games during his Kentucky tenure.
Final Gonzaga-Kentucky Prediction & Pick
From a motivational standpoint it would seem like Gonzaga potentially playing for their tournament hopes would have the edge but not so fast. This is a Kentucky team playing to defend their pride of home court in fear of dropping three straight for the first time in the Calipari era. Per Tristan Pharis (@TristanUda on X/Twitter): Jordan Burks says the team has been “locked-in” during practice this week on the focus of practice: Defense, rebounding, talking, and staying connected.
Steele Venters going down with a season-ending injury really hurt the Zags. Without Venters, and with 6-6 freshman Dusty Stromer not being ready for big-time minutes, Mark Few has had to play an unconventional lineup. Few has bumped natural power forward, 6-8 Anton Watson, down to the three with 6-10 forward Ben Gregg playing the four. There is a reason Gonzaga is 0-5 in Quad 1 games–they aren’t very good. Even if Wagner or Mitchell are out I like Kentucky in this get-right spot at home.
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Final Gonzaga-Kentucky Prediction & Pick: Kentucky -4.5 (-104)
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