Because of the tantalizing talent of gangly, gargantuan power forward Victor Wembanyama, the Frenchman may be entering the NBA with as much promise and fanfare as any top prospect in recent memory.
However, just because a player is thought to have the potential to be an all-time great, it doesn't mean that they're guaranteed to reach that level. External factors, such as the organization a player was drafted to, often affects a player's trajectory for better or worse. Internal factors, such as work ethic, durability and coachability can make all the difference as well.
In Wembanyama's case, the only real question may be how he holds up physically.
Not in the sense that he would be unable to handle the physicality of the NBA, which has been dialed back over the years. Only in that as a 7-foot-4 big man that may still be growing, his combination of size, guard skill and fluidity is unheard of. Nobody can accurately predict how his lower extremities will hold up playing professional basketball over the course of the next decade, especially in 82-game seasons against the best athletes in the world.
Which brings to question one major possibility… the idea that the right deal could entice the San Antonio Spurs to trade the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft.
To that point, ESPN's NBA insiders recently put together a trade scenario for the No. 1 overall pick that the Spurs would at least consider:
San Antonio Spurs receive: Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs, 2023 No. 6 overall pick, 2023 No. 11 overall pick
Orlando Magic receive: 2023 No. 1 overall pick
Grading ESPN's hypothetical Spurs-Magic trade involving Victor Wembanyama, Paolo Banchero
From the San Antonio Spurs' perspective
From the San Antonio Spurs perspective, they acquire a player with All-Star talent in Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero, a strong and patient shot-creator that averaged 20.0 points, 6.9 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 0.8 steals per game on his way to winning the 2023 Rookie of the Year award.
The first overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, Banchero may not be the transcendent prospect that Victor Wembanyama is he's already a proven commodity at just 20-years-old. Adding two lottery picks in the 2023 NBA Draft, which they could use to address any number of positions, only makes this trade more sensible for a franchise that should reserve an appropriate fear that Wembanyama doesn't reach expectations in the NBA.
Jalen Suggs, the fifth overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, will be an interesting addition as well. Especially for Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich, who has proven himself capable of bringing the best out of a somewhat similar guard prospect in Tony Parker. Both Suggs and Parker entered the league as combo guards rather than a player with a pure position. However, like Parker, Suggs has a combination of size, coachability and basketball IQ that could lead to him being a pretty good player as well.
From the Orlando Magic's perspective
From the Orlando Magic's perspective, trading a player that's in the archetypal mold of a perennial All-Star only makes sense if they believe that Victor Wembanyama is bound to be a superstar, at minimum.
Not that Wembanyama could not be, as his skillset is rarified when considering his shot-creation abilities at his size. Furthermore, considering the pre- and post-draft fanfare generated by big man prospects like Chet Holmgren and Evan Mobley in recent years, every front office likely has high expectations for the 19-year-old.
Of course, giving up a prototypical forward prospect like Paolo Banchero and their two 2023 lottery picks could come back to haunt them. Especially if, like Holmgren, Joel Embiid, Zydrunas Ilgauskus and several other big men, he experiences a major injury early in his NBA career.
Nonetheless, Wembanyama may elevate the Magic in a way that Franz Wagner, Jonathan Isaac and even Paolo Banchero cannot. For a franchise that has only had one season with a record above .500 over the past 10 years, swinging for the fences has an obvious appeal.
Final Grade
Frankly, this trade could end up being better for the San Antonio Spurs than the Orlando Magic, but that all depends on the durability of Victor Wembanyma at 7-foot-4 and 230 pounds.
For a final grade, the deal should get a W.
W is as in it could be a Win for both teams, but we'll have to Wait and see.
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