The first round of the NCAA Tournament continues as Grambling State faces Purdue. It is time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Grambling State-Purdue prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Grambling State won their first-ever NCAA tournament game in their first try facing Montana State. After winning their first SWAC tournament, Grambling State received a birth in the tournament playing the first four games. Montana State led for most of the game, but Grambling State made a comeback. There, they would force overtime and outscored Montana State 16-9. This would lead to an 88-81 win and a date with Purdue.
Meanwhile, Purdue finished the regular season and tournament at 29-4. After getting the number one seed in the Big Ten tournament, they would face Michigan State in the quarterfinals. They would win that game 67-62. Still, they would then face Wisconsin in the semi-finals, losing the game 76-75. Purdue has been to the tournament each time since 2015, falling in the first round three times, including last year as a one-seed.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
March Madness Odds: Grambling State-Purdue Odds
Grambling State: +26.5 (-115)
Moneyline: +3500
Purdue: -26.5 (-105)
Moneyline: -20000
Over: 139.5 (-110)
Under: 139.5 (-110)
How to Watch March Madness
Time:7:25 PM ET/ 4:25 PM PT
TV: TBS
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Grambling State Will Cover The Spread/Win
Grambling State is ranked 267th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings this year, sitting 297th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 197th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Grambling State is 324th in the nation in points per game this year, while sitting 267th in effective field goal percentage. Kintavious Dozier comes in leading the offense. He has 12.9 points per game this year while shooting 45.1 percent from the field. Tra'Michael Moton sits second with 11.6 points per game while leading the team with 2.7 assists per game this year. Rounding out the top scorers is Antwan Burnett, who comes in with 10.4 points per game this year while shooting 46.3 percent from the field.
Grambling State is 339th in rebounds per game this year but does sit 177th in offensive rebounding rate. Burnett leads the way here as well. He has 6.1 rebounds per game this year. Still, he is primarily a defensive rebounder. Jonathan Aku comes in with 5.3 rebounds per game this year and has almost two offensive rebounds per game this year.
Grambling State is 82nd in the nation in points allowed per game but sits 123rd in opponent effective field goal percentage. Tra'Michael Moton has been great on defense. He comes in with 1.7 steals per game this year. Meanwhile, Kintavious Dozier adds 1.0 steals per game this year.
Why Purdue Will Cover The Spread/Win
Purdue is number three in the nation in KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings, sitting fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency and 21st in adjusted defensive efficiency. They have also faced the fourth hardest schedule according to Ken Pom, coming away with just three losses on the year. Further, Purdue is tenth in the nation in points per game while sitting fifth in assists this year. They are also 13th in the nation in effective field goal percentage this year. Zach Edey has led them.
Edey comes into the game with 24.4 points per game this year. That is good for the most in the nation this year, while his shooting percentage of 61.9 percent is 16th. Edey has 25 or more points in each of his last seven games. Meanwhile, Braden Smith comes in with 12.5 points per game this year, while also having 7.3 assists per game on the year. Lance Jones has also been solid this year, he comes into the game with 12.2 points per game.
Purdue has been solid in the rebounding game as well, sitting sixth in the nation in rebounds per game. Further, they are 16th in defensive rounds per game as well, while sitting fifth in offensive rebounding percentage. Edey and Smith lead the way there too. Edey is averaging 11.7 rebounds per game this year, third in the nation. Meanwhile, Braden Smith has 5.8 rebounds per game this year.
On defense, Purdue is 102nd in points against per game this year but they are 44th in opponent effective field goal percentage. Once again, the story on defense is Edey and Smith. Edey comes in with 2.2 blocks per game this year. Meanwhile, Smith has 1.6 steals per game on the season. Further, Lance Jones also has 1.4 steals per game this year.
Final Grambling State-Purdue Prediction & Pick
While Grambling State has a nice story and made a great comeback in their first game of the tournament, this is not the same level of team they are facing. If they struggle to score consistently, there will not be a comeback in store for Grambling State. They do not have anyone who will match up with Zach Edey. Playing their team total may be a solid move, but with how much they are going to score, the total is the best play in this one.
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Final Grambling State-Purdue Prediction & Pick: Over 139.5 (-110)
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