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The Cleveland Guardians head to the Windy City to face the Chicago Cubs. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Guardians-Cubs prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
The Guardians won two of three over the Royals this week, and now have won seven of their last ten games. This has brought them to a 39-41 record for the season, which ties them for first place in the AL Central. Meanwhile, the Cubs have lost four straight games. That comes on the heels of winning four straight games. Overall the Cubs are 5-5 in their last ten games, and find themselves five games back of the Brewers and Reds for first place in the NL Central. Sitting at 37-42 on the season, the Cubs have not been over .500 since May 6th.
Here are the Guardians-Cubs MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Guardians-Cubs Odds
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-137)
Chicago Cubs: -1.5 (+114)
Over: 8.5 (-102)
Under: 8.5 (-120)
How To Watch Guardians vs. Cubs
TV: BSGL/MARQ
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 2:20 PM ET/ 11:20 AM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Guardians Could Cover The Spread
For the Guardians winning starts with pitching. The Guardians pitching as a whole has been top ten this year. They are 11th in quality starts and opponent batting average while sitting tenth in WHIP and sixth in team ERA. They limit home runs, sitting tied for first in home run rate while sitting top ten in both walk rate and hard hit ball rate. It is not just the starters who have been good. The Cleveland bullpen is second in the majors in ERA at 2.98 while sitting fourth in saves.
Cal Quantril will make his first start since May 20th as he comes off the IL due to a shoulder strain. It has not been the best season for Quatril though, as he is 2-4 with a 5.61 ERA. His last two outings went very poorly, as he pitched a combined 8.1 innings and gave up 14 runs. Before that though, he had been pitching fairly well. He had an ERA of 4.06 and had been pitching deeper into games. If he can give five quality innings today, the bullpen will be able to take it home for the Guardians.
Hoping to give Quantril some run support will be Jose Ramirez. He is coming off of a good series against the Royals in which he went five for nine at the plate, walked four times, hit a home run, and drove in six. Ramirez has been hitting well all month. On the month he has 23 RBIs with seven home runs, five doubles, and two triples. He also has a .340 batting average with a .405 on-base percentage this month alone.
Joining him in having a hot month is Josh Naylor. He went five for 13 in the series against the Royals and is now hitting .370 this month. He has 18 RBIS and has scored 13 times in 100 at-bats so far this month. Naylor has also been making solid contact this month. He has struck out just 14 times but has only drawn four walks.
Why The Cubs Could Cover The Spread
The Cubs need to find some consistency if they are going to make a run in the NL Central. In their four-game losing streak, they have either struggled on offense, or in pitching. They have been outscored 23-12 in those four games. In the winning streak right before that, they had both the offense and the pitching going and outscored their opponents 29-4. The offense has been fairly average as a result of the inconsistency. They are 17th in runs scored and slugging while sitting 18th in batting average and tenth in on-base percentage this year.
While some bats have cooled off as of late, Nick Madrigal has not. He went five for 11 in the series with the Phillies and is hitting .327 this month. Madrigal has not been in a lot of RBI producing spots on the month and only has five, but he has been putting himself in positions to score. He has an OBP of .421 on the month while scoring seven times and stealing five bases.
Dansby Swanson is the one driving in the runs as of late. He has just 12 RBIs on the month, but five of them have come in his last seven games. Swanson is hitting just .261 this month with four home runs. He has been striking out a fair amount this month, striking out 23 times the month, but that has waned as of late as he is making better contact. Joining him in driving in runs is Nico Hoerner. Hoerner leads the team in RBIs on the season with 40, and he has 14 this month. Eight of those have come in his last eight games.
Justin Steele takes the mound today for the Cubs. He has been stellar this year with an 8-2 record and a 2.62 ERA. He has been even better at home with a 5-1 record and 2.57 ERA. After missing some time at the start of June he has been solid in his last two starts. He has gone a combined 11 innings, striking out 12 and giving up just three runs. That has resulted in two wins for Steele. This year Steele only has three starts in which he has given up three or more earned runs. He also has only given up three home runs this year, primarily keeping the ball on the ground in many of his starts.
Final Guardians-Cubs Prediction & Pick
While the Guardians have the better pitching overall, the edge in starting pitching in this match-up goes to the Cubs. Steele has been great all year long and will look to continue that today. Both offenses are fairly similar, but the Guardians have been slightly better as of late. Still, expect a low-scoring and close game. If the Cubs are going to win, they are going to have to get up early, and not need to come back against the Guardians bullpen. With the score being low and the level of play from the Guardians bullpen, this should be a one-run game. With that, take the extra runs with the Guardians while the total goes under.
Final Guardians-Cubs Prediction & Pick: Guardians +1.5 (137) and Under 8.5 (-120)
