The NBA Playoffs continue as the Denver Nuggets (53-29) visit the Miami Heat (44-38) for Game 3 of the NBA Finals. Action tips off Wednesday at 8:30 p.m. ET. Miami evened the series at 1-1 thanks to their 111-108 win in Game 2. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Nuggets-Heat prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Here are the Nuggets-Heat NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Finals Odds: Nuggets-Heat Odds
Denver Nuggets: -2.5 (-108)
Miami Heat: +2.5 (-112)
Over: 214.5 (-108)
Under: 214.5 (-112)
How To Watch Nuggets vs. Heat NBA Finals
TV: ABC, ESPN Deportes
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET/ 5:30 p.m. PT
*See how to watch Nuggets-Heat LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Nuggets Could Cover The Spread
Playoff ATS Record: 10-7 (59%)
Playoff Over Record: 9-8 (53%)
Denver suffered their first home loss since March in Game 2 as the eight-point favorites were upset 111-108. They played well for three-quarters of the game and still finished with strong counting stats. Denver shot 52% overall, 39% from three, and nailed 19/22 free throws. Additionally, they out rebounded the Heat 38-31 and dominated the paint 48-34. However, the Nuggets faltered down the stretch and couldn't contain Miami's offense in the fourth quarter as they were outscored 36-25. Consequently, the Nuggets need to sure up their perimeter defense and hope for some regression from the Heat's three-point shooters if they want to cover in Game 3.
Despite the loss, Denver received a historic game from superstar Nikola Jokic. The two-time MVP dropped a 41-point, 11-rebound double-double in the loss but finished -11 on the floor. While he finished with a monster scoring night, the Heat made a concentrated effort to limit Jokic's playmaking. He finished with just four assists – his lowest total of the playoffs. While Denver will take 40 points from Jokic every night, it was clear that Miami staying home on the Nuggets' role players proved successful in Game 2. That said, Jokic is one of the best playmakers in the game. Expect him to continue dominating on offense in Game 3.
With Jokic attempting 28 shots, Jamaal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. had incredibly quiet scoring nights in Game 2. Murray finished with just 18 points on 15 shot attempts – although he did dish out 10 assists. That was a far cry from his Game 1 performance when he dropped 26 points on 11/22 shooting. Still, that was his second-best scoring output of the playoffs and he'll likely return to his primary scoring role in Game 2.
As for Michael Porter, he was nonexistent in their Game 2 loss. He finished with just five points on an ugly 2/8 shooting overall that included a 1/6 showing from beyond the arc. The talented scorer didn't shoot well in Game 1, either, but he still finished with 14 points on 5/16 shooting. MPJ hasn't eclipsed 20 points in his past nine games but the Nuggets need him to step up and get hot if they want to cover Game 3.
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
Playoff ATS Record: 14-6 (70%)
Playoff Over Record: 12-8 (60%)
Miami shocked the NBA world in Game 3 – battling back to even the series at 1-1. Many around the NBA landscape were calling the series after Denver's dominant Game 1 win. That looked like a smart call through three quarters of Game 2 but Miami used a 36-point fourth quarter to tie the series heading back to Miami. Miami shot a blistering 49% from beyond the arc – nailing 17 triples in the win. Despite being out rebounded and outscored in the paint, Miami's outside shooting proved too much to overcome in Game 2. That said, the Heat likely need another hot shooting night if they want to cover as home underdogs in Game 3.
Miami featured an incredibly balanced attack in Game 2 as three players eclipsed 20 points. Gabe Vincent led the way with 23 points as he finished a team-best +23 from the floor. He drilled 4/6 threes in the win and has averaged 21 PPG through the first two games. Along with Vincent, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo both scored 21 points in the win. Butler still hasn't had a signature game in the Finals but continues to serve as Miami's leader on both ends of the floor. Butler has displayed a tendency to show out in home games for the Heat this postseason and could be in store for a 30+ point game in Game 3.
The biggest X-factors for the Heat in Game 3 are their shooters. Between Vincent (4/6), Max Stus (4/10), and Duncan Robinson (2/3), Miami has a plethora of lethal outside shooters. While they were all dialed in for Game 2, they'll need at least one of them to stay hot if they want to cover in Game 3.
Final Nuggets-Heat Prediction & Pick
Despite Miami's huge win in Game 2, Denver is still the better team. While this should be a close game, I like Denver to bounce back and retake home-court advantage in Game 3.
Final Nuggets-Heat Prediction & Pick: Denver Nuggets -2.5 (-108)
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